4038 Bailey Ave · Eggertsville, NY 14226

$239,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1936 3,506 sqft lot $143/sqft · 41% below area Est $409k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

2/2 Double Unit home walk to UB Main Campus Hardwood floors maintenace free vinyl siding and newer roof, seperate forced air furnaces. Great opportunity to live rent free. AMHERST schools off street parking great investment property or owner occupy. No need for a car bus line in walking distance.

Key facts

• Sump pump
• Glass block windows
• Concrete driveway

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHENS AND BATHS
• UPDATED ELECTRIC PANELS
• SUMP PUMP
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Both units currently leased: Unit 1 lease expires July 31, 2026; Unit 2 lease expires March 31, 2027; Each unit listed with $1,200 actual rent
• Financial info: Property is a 2-unit building with separate gas and electric meters for each unit; Owner pays water; water/sewer included in operating expenses; Both units are leased (rents shown for each unit)

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking; parking available
• Utilities: Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story building; Shingle roof; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Block and stone foundation; Existing (original) construction
• Exterior features: Covered and open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes an eat-in kitchen; Oven/range and refrigerator in both units
• Bedrooms: One unit with 3 bedrooms; One unit with 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Varies by area
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total (one full bathroom per unit)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Hardwood and tile flooring throughout; varied flooring in places; Full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer included in one unit; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.5% in Eggertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Amherst Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #209 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $240k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $239,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.04%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $408,858
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -41.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
240 Callodine Ave	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,652 (-1%)	3mo	$285,000	$173	92
236 Callodine Ave	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,604 (-4%)	4mo	$195,000	$122	86
3906 Bailey Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,695 (+1%)	2mo	$215,000	$127	85
232 Callodine Ave	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,584 (-5%)	5mo	$263,000	$166	84
424 Springville Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,568 (-6%)	17mo	$320,000	$204	57
2 Kettering Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,704 (+2%)	20mo	$225,000	$132	54
141 Hawthorne Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+5%)	18mo	$220,000	$125	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $12,853
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $129,701
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14226

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,988 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$440 /mo · $5,284/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,276

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $698	-5% $630	+0% $562	+5% $494	+10% $426
Rent	-10% $326	-5% $444	+0% $562	+5% $680	+10% $798
Rate	-1.0pp $683	-0.5pp $623	base $562	+0.5pp $500	+1.0pp $437

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$1,555
1× unit	2	1	$1,432
Total (2 units)			$2,988

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4098 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.5	2108	$2,200	$1.04	44d	1	0.12mi
91 Springville Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,350	$1.42	24d	1	0.27mi
348 Capen Blvd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1424	$2,200	$1.54	2d	1	0.36mi
524 University Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1840	$1,600	$0.87	2d	1	0.74mi
63 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2240	$2,000	$0.89	2d	1	0.91mi
60 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	2d	1	0.98mi
69 Berryman Dr Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	2056	$2,950	$1.43	2d	1	1.12mi
212 Dellwood Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	4.0	1209	$3,400	$2.81	2d	2	1.13mi
33 Tillotson Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1143	$2,095	$1.83	15d	1	1.16mi
65 Northrup Pl Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	15d	1	1.17mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	24d	1	1.23mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	44d	1	1.23mi
85 Highgate Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2193	$3,750	$1.71	15d	1	1.24mi
265 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	44d	1	1.26mi
175 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	15d	1	1.28mi
151 Lamson Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1382	$2,350	$1.70	18d	1	1.30mi
263 Minnesota Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	15d	1	1.33mi
163 Carmel Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	4d	1	1.48mi
182 Woodcrest Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,300	$1.67	20d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 917-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $239,900 Active 917-char remark
3. 2014-01-31
   soldstatus $68,000 297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (297 chars)

   2/2 Double Unit home walk to UB Main Campus Hardwood floors maintenace free vinyl siding and newer roof, seperate forced air furnaces. Great opportunity to live rent free. AMHERST schools off street parking great investment property or owner occupy. No need for a car bus line in walking distance.

4. 2014-01-31
   soldstatus $68,000

   Show marketing remark (297 chars)

   2/2 Double Unit home walk to UB Main Campus Hardwood floors maintenace free vinyl siding and newer roof, seperate forced air furnaces. Great opportunity to live rent free. AMHERST schools off street parking great investment property or owner occupy. No need for a car bus line in walking distance.

5. 2013-12-04
   listed $68,500 297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (297 chars)

   2/2 Double Unit home walk to UB Main Campus Hardwood floors maintenace free vinyl siding and newer roof, seperate forced air furnaces. Great opportunity to live rent free. AMHERST schools off street parking great investment property or owner occupy. No need for a car bus line in walking distance.

6. 2013-03-07
   listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,284 · $440/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,284 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$5,284
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,868
• − Management: −$2,868
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable income: $3,218
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$772
• After-tax cash flow: $5,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amherst Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602920
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $68,551
• Composite: 53.21/100
• National rank: #1502
• State rank: #209 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eggertsville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #534

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eggertsville, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 29,482
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,159
• Household income: $84,325
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.71%
• Current HPI: 331.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+166.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $239,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2014-01-31 Sold (MLS) $68,000 WNYREIS
• 2013-12-04 Listed $68,500 WNYREIS
• 2013-03-07 Listed $89,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,284 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.