2236 Old Jolly Bay Rd · Freeport, FL 32439

$279,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,890 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1999 0.88 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*CHECK OUT 3D TOUR* Nearly an acre on a level corner lot! New Paint & Carpet IN BEDROOMS! Tile Floors in the Main Areas. Large Driveway with plenty of parking for a Boat or RV. The home features four bedrooms and two baths with multiple living areas and plenty of room for entertaining. The master suite complete with soaking tub and separate shower is situated on it's own wing opposite of the three other bedrooms. The multiple sheds and abundant yard space create unlimited possibilities for storage and the potential for a family compound with the addition of a perimeter fence. Centrally located with a short drive to the beach and Black Creek. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 0.88 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.88 acres (dimensions 148 x 259); Road frontage on a county road; Zoned for mobile home / single-family residential

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Electric service; Private well; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1999
• Exterior features: Yard building; Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the first floor with garden tub and separate shower
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heat controls
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.0% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Freeport Senior High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 557 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1012 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 18 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $158k; list at $280k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,984 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-33,881
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-25,319
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1012
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $833/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,093

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1952 County Highway 3280 Unit 3280 Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,900	$1.50	21d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $279,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $289,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $293,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $293,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $293,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $293,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $293,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $293,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $298,000 Active
18. 2026-05-08
    historical
19. 2026-05-07
    status Active
20. 2026-04-27
    price $299,900
21. 2026-04-12
    price $324,900
22. 2026-03-12
    price $329,900
23. 2026-01-19
    price $339,900
24. 2025-11-07
    listed $350,000 Active
25. 2020-09-10
    soldstatus $158,000
26. 2020-09-04
    soldstatus $158,000 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    *CHECK OUT 3D TOUR* Nearly an acre on a level corner lot! New Paint & Carpet IN BEDROOMS! Tile Floors in the Main Areas. Large Driveway with plenty of parking for a Boat or RV. The home features four bedrooms and two baths with multiple living areas and plenty of room for entertaining. The master suite complete with soaking tub and separate shower is situated on it's own wing opposite of the three other bedrooms. The multiple sheds and abundant yard space create unlimited possibilities for storage and the potential for a family compound with the addition of a perimeter fence. Centrally located with a short drive to the beach and Black Creek. Schedule your showing today!

27. 2020-09-04
    soldstatus $158,000 Sold 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    *CHECK OUT 3D TOUR* Nearly an acre on a level corner lot! New Paint & Carpet IN BEDROOMS! Tile Floors in the Main Areas. Large Driveway with plenty of parking for a Boat or RV. The home features four bedrooms and two baths with multiple living areas and plenty of room for entertaining. The master suite complete with soaking tub and separate shower is situated on it's own wing opposite of the three other bedrooms. The multiple sheds and abundant yard space create unlimited possibilities for storage and the potential for a family compound with the addition of a perimeter fence. Centrally located with a short drive to the beach and Black Creek. Schedule your showing today!

28. 2020-07-23
    status Pending 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    *CHECK OUT 3D TOUR* Nearly an acre on a level corner lot! New Paint & Carpet IN BEDROOMS! Tile Floors in the Main Areas. Large Driveway with plenty of parking for a Boat or RV. The home features four bedrooms and two baths with multiple living areas and plenty of room for entertaining. The master suite complete with soaking tub and separate shower is situated on it's own wing opposite of the three other bedrooms. The multiple sheds and abundant yard space create unlimited possibilities for storage and the potential for a family compound with the addition of a perimeter fence. Centrally located with a short drive to the beach and Black Creek. Schedule your showing today!

29. 2020-06-21
    price $179,000 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    *CHECK OUT 3D TOUR* Nearly an acre on a level corner lot! New Paint & Carpet IN BEDROOMS! Tile Floors in the Main Areas. Large Driveway with plenty of parking for a Boat or RV. The home features four bedrooms and two baths with multiple living areas and plenty of room for entertaining. The master suite complete with soaking tub and separate shower is situated on it's own wing opposite of the three other bedrooms. The multiple sheds and abundant yard space create unlimited possibilities for storage and the potential for a family compound with the addition of a perimeter fence. Centrally located with a short drive to the beach and Black Creek. Schedule your showing today!

30. 2020-04-03
    price $189,000 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    *CHECK OUT 3D TOUR* Nearly an acre on a level corner lot! New Paint & Carpet IN BEDROOMS! Tile Floors in the Main Areas. Large Driveway with plenty of parking for a Boat or RV. The home features four bedrooms and two baths with multiple living areas and plenty of room for entertaining. The master suite complete with soaking tub and separate shower is situated on it's own wing opposite of the three other bedrooms. The multiple sheds and abundant yard space create unlimited possibilities for storage and the potential for a family compound with the addition of a perimeter fence. Centrally located with a short drive to the beach and Black Creek. Schedule your showing today!

31. 2020-03-18
    price $199,000 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    *CHECK OUT 3D TOUR* Nearly an acre on a level corner lot! New Paint & Carpet IN BEDROOMS! Tile Floors in the Main Areas. Large Driveway with plenty of parking for a Boat or RV. The home features four bedrooms and two baths with multiple living areas and plenty of room for entertaining. The master suite complete with soaking tub and separate shower is situated on it's own wing opposite of the three other bedrooms. The multiple sheds and abundant yard space create unlimited possibilities for storage and the potential for a family compound with the addition of a perimeter fence. Centrally located with a short drive to the beach and Black Creek. Schedule your showing today!

32. 2020-02-15
    price $225,000 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    *CHECK OUT 3D TOUR* Nearly an acre on a level corner lot! New Paint & Carpet IN BEDROOMS! Tile Floors in the Main Areas. Large Driveway with plenty of parking for a Boat or RV. The home features four bedrooms and two baths with multiple living areas and plenty of room for entertaining. The master suite complete with soaking tub and separate shower is situated on it's own wing opposite of the three other bedrooms. The multiple sheds and abundant yard space create unlimited possibilities for storage and the potential for a family compound with the addition of a perimeter fence. Centrally located with a short drive to the beach and Black Creek. Schedule your showing today!

33. 2020-01-23
    listed $235,000 Active 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    *CHECK OUT 3D TOUR* Nearly an acre on a level corner lot! New Paint & Carpet IN BEDROOMS! Tile Floors in the Main Areas. Large Driveway with plenty of parking for a Boat or RV. The home features four bedrooms and two baths with multiple living areas and plenty of room for entertaining. The master suite complete with soaking tub and separate shower is situated on it's own wing opposite of the three other bedrooms. The multiple sheds and abundant yard space create unlimited possibilities for storage and the potential for a family compound with the addition of a perimeter fence. Centrally located with a short drive to the beach and Black Creek. Schedule your showing today!

34. 2019-12-30
    listed $179,000 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    *CHECK OUT 3D TOUR* Nearly an acre on a level corner lot! New Paint & Carpet IN BEDROOMS! Tile Floors in the Main Areas. Large Driveway with plenty of parking for a Boat or RV. The home features four bedrooms and two baths with multiple living areas and plenty of room for entertaining. The master suite complete with soaking tub and separate shower is situated on it's own wing opposite of the three other bedrooms. The multiple sheds and abundant yard space create unlimited possibilities for storage and the potential for a family compound with the addition of a perimeter fence. Centrally located with a short drive to the beach and Black Creek. Schedule your showing today!

35. 2012-01-27
    soldstatus $81,000
36. 2012-01-27
    soldstatus $81,000
37. 2011-07-12
    listed $87,900
38. 2011-07-11
    historical
39. 2011-01-03
    listed $89,900
40. 2011-01-03
    listed $89,900
41. 2008-06-18
    soldstatus $93,000
42. 2008-06-02
    soldstatus $93,000
43. 2008-06-02
    soldstatus $93,000
44. 2007-12-12
    listed $97,000
45. 2007-12-12
    listed $97,000
46. 2007-08-09
    historical
47. 2007-07-21
    listed $104,000
48. 2007-07-21
    listed $104,000
49. 2007-07-20
    historical
50. 2007-01-20
    listed $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $833 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,323 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,490/yr (+$124/mo · 178.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$833
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$1,863
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$447
• After-tax cash flow: $3,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+360.2% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $298,000 ECAR
• 2026-05-08 Delisted — ECAR
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $299,900 ECAR
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $324,900 ECAR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $329,900 ECAR
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $339,900 ECAR
• 2025-11-07 Listed $350,000 ECAR
• 2020-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-04 Sold (MLS) $158,000 ECAR
• 2020-09-04 Sold (MLS) $158,000 NAMLS
• 2020-07-23 Pending — ECAR
• 2020-06-21 Price Changed $179,000 ECAR
• 2020-04-03 Price Changed $189,000 ECAR
• 2020-03-18 Price Changed $199,000 ECAR
• 2020-02-15 Price Changed $225,000 ECAR
• 2020-01-23 Listed $235,000 ECAR
• 2019-12-30 Listed $179,000 NAMLS
• 2012-01-27 Sold (MLS) $81,000 NAMLS
• 2012-01-27 Sold (MLS) $81,000 ECAR
• 2011-07-12 Listed $87,900 NAMLS
• 2011-07-11 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2011-01-03 Listed $89,900 NAMLS
• 2011-01-03 Listed $89,900 ECAR
• 2008-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-02 Sold (MLS) $93,000 NAMLS
• 2008-06-02 Sold (MLS) $93,000 ECAR
• 2007-12-12 Listed $97,000 NAMLS
• 2007-12-12 Listed $97,000 ECAR
• 2007-08-09 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2007-07-21 Listed $104,000 NAMLS
• 2007-07-21 Listed $104,000 ECAR
• 2007-07-20 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2007-01-20 Listed $99,000 NAMLS
• 2007-01-20 Listed $99,000 ECAR
• 2006-08-17 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2006-02-17 Listed $139,900 NAMLS
• 2006-02-17 Listed $139,900 ECAR
• 2003-07-15 Sold (MLS) $62,000 NAMLS
• 2003-07-15 Sold (MLS) $62,000 ECAR
• 2003-03-13 Listed $64,750 NAMLS
• 2003-03-13 Listed $64,750 ECAR

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $833 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.