1316 S 9th St · Paducah, KY 42003

$109,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Other · 56 Days on market

Built 2006 0.29 ac lot $98/sqft · 83% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Paducah, KY. This property features an open floor plan with a comfortable living area offering carpet flooring and a ceiling fan, flowing seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space for easy everyday living. The kitchen includes oak cabinetry, recessed lighting, black appliances (refrigerator and range), and wood-look flooring. A pass-through opening to the living area enhances the functional layout. Both bedrooms are nicely sized with carpet flooring, ceiling fans, and natural light. The primary suite includes a private bath with a soaking tub, separate shower, and a walk-in closet with built-in shelving. A second full bat

Key facts

• Black appliances
• Wood-look flooring
• Open floor plan

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• OAK CABINETRY
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• WOOD-LOOK FLOORING
• PASS-THROUGH OPENING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.29 acres (public records); Parcel number 112-24-11-021

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built area: 1,120
• Exterior features: Neighborhood view; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.5% in Paducah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#197 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Paducah Independent (town): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #122 of 165 in KY (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $110k implies a 1121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.65%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,059
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: 82.99%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $11,046
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $46,837
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42003

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $529	-5% $491	+0% $453	+5% $415	+10% $377
Rent	-10% $331	-5% $392	+0% $453	+5% $513	+10% $574
Rate	-1.0pp $508	-0.5pp $481	base $453	+0.5pp $424	+1.0pp $395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 N 6th St #100 Paducah, KY	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	44d	1	1.31mi
1643 Monroe St Apt A Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	1127	$1,250	$1.11	44d	1	1.42mi
1900 Jefferson St Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,900 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $109,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    price $125,000 1082-char remark
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $130,000 Active 1082-char remark
19. 1991-12-01
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $3,915
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$940
• After-tax cash flow: $4,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paducah Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104650
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $30,067
• Composite: 23.41/100
• National rank: #7896
• State rank: #122 of 165 in KY

Livability — Paducah

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #9780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paducah, KY
• City population: 30,856
• Population (ZIP): 29,384

Population outlook (McCracken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,237 people
• By 2030: 63,468 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 61,221 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 58,432 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 52,668 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 44,517 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McCracken

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.9% · R 66.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+32.5 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.31%
• Current HPI: 236.3013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1121.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $109,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $115,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $125,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $130,000 ImagineMLS
• 1991-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-24.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $120 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.