22783 American Kestrel Ct · Splendora, TX 77372

$224,634

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · Land · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 4,711 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Nottingham is a 2-story home from the Cottage Series Line. It features 4 bedrooms with the primary suite located downstairs and including a private bathroom with and a connecting walk-in closet. The peninsula kitchen with seating space is open to the family room, while the flex room and spacious laundry room upstairs offer additional space. A unique Jack-and-Jill style bathroom connects bedrooms and 3 and 4.

Key facts

• Nottingham floorplan
• Gourmet kitchen
• Owner's suite

Tags

• NOTTINGHAM FLOORPLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Principal Management Group; Annual association fee; Community pool, curbs, and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage with door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Faces northeast; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler / irrigation; Subdivision lot features; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Double vanity in primary bathroom; Primary bedroom with private bath; Soaking tub and separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors; Solid surface countertops; Window treatments / coverings; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included

🏗️ New construction. The $224,634 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $204,304.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $211,582 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.99%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,304
• List price: $224,634
• Delta: 9.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,879
• Equity at exit: $30,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $23,346
• Equity at exit: $17,664

Cash invested: $57,205 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,071
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,007/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $204,304

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,076
• Closing costs: $6,129
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,634 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,634 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,634 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,634 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,634 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,634 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,634 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,634 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,634 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,634 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,634 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,634 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,634 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,634 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    listed $224,634 Active 731-char remark
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $224,634 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The Nottingham is a 2-story home from the Cottage Series Line. It features 4 bedrooms with the primary suite located downstairs and including a private bathroom with and a connecting walk-in closet. The peninsula kitchen with seating space is open to the family room, while the flex room and spacious laundry room upstairs offer additional space. A unique Jack-and-Jill style bathroom connects bedrooms and 3 and 4.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,007 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,111 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,104/yr (+$259/mo · 308.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,007
• − Insurance: −$1,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,943
• Taxable income: $1,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$315
• After-tax cash flow: $4,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $224,634 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $224,634 Zillow

Property tax history

+39.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,007 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.