38025 13th Ave · Zephyrhills, FL 33542

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1950 0.32 ac lot Est $254k · 21% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set on a corner lot, this unique property offers two separate 2-bedroom, 1-bath living spaces connected by an interior door, creating a versatile setup suitable for a variety of needs. A welcoming front farmer’s porch overlooks mature landscaping, with established trees that provide shade and a peaceful outdoor setting. The spacious front yard and one-car carport add to the functionality, while two exterior A/C units, one dedicated to each side of the home, offer independent climate control. With no HOA restrictions, cash-only purchase, and close proximity to West Zephyrhills Elementary School and local conveniences, this property presents a compelling opportunity with room to make it

Key facts

• Spacious front yard
• Front farmer's porch
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING SPACES
• FRONT FARMER'S PORCH
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• ESTABLISHED TREES
• SPACIOUS FRONT YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoned R3
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces northeast
• Construction: Shingle roof; Other construction materials; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Zephyrhills Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 615 students, 81% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,862/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 831% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.47%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5527 9th St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,674 (+7%)	5mo	$215,000	$128	55
38323 11th Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-13%)	8mo	$269,900	$198	54
37443 Blueberry Ct	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,661 (+6%)	1mo	$270,000	$163	51
6147 Zephyr Ridge Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	18mo	$228,000	$151	46
37340 Derbyshire Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-8%)	1mo	$275,000	$192	45
37406 Teaberry Loop	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-8%)	2mo	$249,900	$174	43
37347 Derbyshire Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (-8%)	5mo	$228,000	$159	43
37422 Teaberry Loop	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-8%)	5mo	$220,000	$153	42
5909 Yorkshire Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,417 (-9%)	7mo	$224,000	$158	41
5904 Plaza View Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	18mo	$195,900	$146	38
5319 Lantana St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-15%)	9mo	$305,000	$229	36
37401 Teaberry Loop	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-8%)	12mo	$249,500	$174	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-21,677
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,323
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,862 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $999/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,539

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $312	+0% $255	+5% $199	+10% $142
Rent	-10% $108	-5% $182	+0% $255	+5% $329	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $306	base $255	+0.5pp $204	+1.0pp $151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6136 Pina Colada St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	14d	1	0.45mi
6195 Daerr Ridge St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,000	$1.44	20d	1	0.49mi
5143 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,750	$1.22	26d	1	0.52mi
38552 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1052	$2,100	$2.00	22d	1	0.53mi
38300 Henry Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	7d	1	0.60mi
38719 12th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	1246	$1,400	$1.12	26d	1	0.72mi
37661 Aaralyn Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,800	$1.32	26d	1	0.73mi
6246 Timberly Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,900	$1.39	26d	1	0.74mi
5812 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	26d	1	0.78mi
5521 Barbara St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	26d	1	0.80mi
6249 Maisai Rd #6 Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1561	$1,550	$0.99	5d	1	0.80mi
6262 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,700	$1.25	26d	1	0.80mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	22d	1	0.86mi
37711 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,765	$1.15	17d	1	0.90mi
37726 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,985	$1.21	24d	1	0.92mi
37714 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,855	$1.20	17d	1	0.93mi
37643 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,840	$1.19	24d	1	0.93mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,545	$1.41	1d	1	0.95mi
4850 Foliage Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,780	$1.16	24d	1	0.95mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	26d	1	0.95mi
4940 9th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	26d	1	0.96mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,999	$2.34	0d	141	1.01mi
4639 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	26d	1	1.04mi
37688 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,935	$1.18	26d	1	1.10mi
37741 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,715	$1.11	26d	1	1.10mi
4820 Foliage Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,780	$1.16	24d	1	1.10mi
37685 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,970	$1.21	7d	1	1.10mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	26d	1	1.12mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	26d	1	1.27mi
37472 Sharks Eye Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,100	$1.35	4d	1	1.27mi
36887 Highland Meadows Ct Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,250	$1.23	26d	1	1.27mi
39252 Heights Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1210	$2,050	$1.69	17d	1	1.29mi
37373 Sharks Eye Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,200	$1.41	12d	1	1.30mi
37357 Sharks Eye Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1961	$2,600	$1.33	26d	1	1.31mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	7d	1	1.33mi
38028 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	24d	1	1.33mi
38034 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	24d	1	1.33mi
38064 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	20d	1	1.33mi
38078 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,765	$1.15	24d	1	1.33mi
38055 Woodgate Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,400	$0.96	26d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $200,000
16. 2026-02-27
    price $219,900
17. 2026-01-07
    listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $999 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$661/yr (+$55/mo · 66.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$999
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,787
• − Management: −$1,787
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$61
• After-tax cash flow: $3,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $999 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.