12736 Jaden Dr · Walker, LA 70785

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,457 sqft · SingleFamily · 142 Days on market

Built 2014 8,015 sqft lot $154/sqft · 18% below area Est $274k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the sought after Livingston Parish School System. Turn key, this home is move in ready! This is an open split floor plan. Large family room, kitchen with bar area opening into family room. Large master bedroom, dual vanities in master bath, soaking tub and large walk-in closet. Freshly painted interior. New Flooring, Refrigerator will remain.

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Large walk-in closet
• 8,015 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN WITH BAR AREA
• DUAL VANITIES IN MASTER BATH
• SOAKING TUB
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#19 in LA, #3,999 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $225k implies a 288% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,009 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,157
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -17.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12781 Landon Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-1%)	3mo	$209,900	$145	89
12738 Landon Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-2%)	14mo	$219,900	$154	82
12760 Jaden Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+3%)	14mo	$249,999	$167	82
12747 Jaden Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,502 (+3%)	17mo	$260,000	$173	79
12783 Jaden Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,319 (-10%)	7mo	$221,500	$168	73
32873 Duff Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-11%)	5mo	$229,900	$177	60
12538 Deerfield Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+15%)	3mo	$272,000	$162	57
33007 Duff Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-2%)	19mo	$230,000	$162	51
15051 Sherwood Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+4%)	21mo	$235,000	$155	44
13009 Robin Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+14%)	5mo	$239,999	$144	39
12472 Winter Ridge Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,672 (+15%)	11mo	$280,000	$167	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-54,852
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-71,356
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70785

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,044/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,986

Max offer price $173,893

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-162	-5% $-226	+0% $-289	+5% $-353	+10% $-417
Rent	-10% $-417	-5% $-353	+0% $-289	+5% $-225	+10% $-161
Rate	-1.0pp $-176	-0.5pp $-232	base $-289	+0.5pp $-348	+1.0pp $-407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30184 Smith Dr Walker, LA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	45d	1	0.39mi
30024 King St Unit D Walker, LA	2.0	2.0	977	$1,400	$1.43	45d	1	0.53mi
13080 Burgess Ave #8 Walker, LA	2.0	1.5	1088	$1,300	$1.19	45d	1	0.75mi
36325 Walker North Rd Walker, LA	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,650	$0.90	45d	1	0.89mi
30100 Walker Rd N Walker, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1019	$1,753	$1.72	15d	15	1.02mi
13176 Brian Park Dr Walker, LA	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,700	$1.10	24d	1	1.20mi
13601 Ball Park Rd Unit 1 Walker, LA	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	45d	1	1.23mi
12567 Orchid Ln Walker, LA	4.0	2.0	1496	$1,750	$1.17	15d	1	1.34mi
12567 Orchid Ln Walker, LA	4.0	2.0	1496	$1,750	$1.17	20d	1	1.34mi
30794 Tanner Ln Walker, LA	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,550	$1.31	24d	1	1.39mi
12321 Village Dr Walker, LA	3.0	2.5	1525	$1,650	$1.08	45d	1	1.39mi
12318 Village Dr Walker, LA	3.0	2.5	1525	$1,650	$1.08	24d	1	1.40mi
13340 Isabella Blvd Walker, LA	4.0	2.0	1668	$2,000	$1.20	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $225,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in the sought after Livingston Parish School System. Turn key, this home is move in ready! This is an open split floor plan. Large family room, kitchen with bar area opening into family room. Large master bedroom, dual vanities in master bath, soaking tub and large walk-in closet. Freshly painted interior. New Flooring, Refrigerator will remain.

16. 2026-04-29
    price $225,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in the sought after Livingston Parish School System. Turn key, this home is move in ready! This is an open split floor plan. Large family room, kitchen with bar area opening into family room. Large master bedroom, dual vanities in master bath, soaking tub and large walk-in closet. Freshly painted interior. New Flooring, Refrigerator will remain.

17. 2026-03-20
    price $235,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in the sought after Livingston Parish School System. Turn key, this home is move in ready! This is an open split floor plan. Large family room, kitchen with bar area opening into family room. Large master bedroom, dual vanities in master bath, soaking tub and large walk-in closet. Freshly painted interior. New Flooring, Refrigerator will remain.

18. 2026-03-20
    price $235,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in the sought after Livingston Parish School System. Turn key, this home is move in ready! This is an open split floor plan. Large family room, kitchen with bar area opening into family room. Large master bedroom, dual vanities in master bath, soaking tub and large walk-in closet. Freshly painted interior. New Flooring, Refrigerator will remain.

19. 2026-02-18
    price $245,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in the sought after Livingston Parish School System. Turn key, this home is move in ready! This is an open split floor plan. Large family room, kitchen with bar area opening into family room. Large master bedroom, dual vanities in master bath, soaking tub and large walk-in closet. Freshly painted interior. New Flooring, Refrigerator will remain.

20. 2026-02-18
    price $245,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in the sought after Livingston Parish School System. Turn key, this home is move in ready! This is an open split floor plan. Large family room, kitchen with bar area opening into family room. Large master bedroom, dual vanities in master bath, soaking tub and large walk-in closet. Freshly painted interior. New Flooring, Refrigerator will remain.

21. 2026-01-27
    listed $253,000 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in the sought after Livingston Parish School System. Turn key, this home is move in ready! This is an open split floor plan. Large family room, kitchen with bar area opening into family room. Large master bedroom, dual vanities in master bath, soaking tub and large walk-in closet. Freshly painted interior. New Flooring, Refrigerator will remain.

22. 2026-01-27
    listed $253,000 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in the sought after Livingston Parish School System. Turn key, this home is move in ready! This is an open split floor plan. Large family room, kitchen with bar area opening into family room. Large master bedroom, dual vanities in master bath, soaking tub and large walk-in closet. Freshly painted interior. New Flooring, Refrigerator will remain.

23. 2015-07-21
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2015-02-09
    listed $149,900
25. 2015-02-09
    listed $149,900
26. 2014-08-20
    listed $149,900
27. 2014-08-20
    listed $149,900
28. 2014-04-07
    listed $159,900
29. 2014-04-07
    listed $159,900
30. 2014-03-14
    soldstatus $58,000
31. 2014-03-14
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,044 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,044 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,044
• − Insurance: −$2,628
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$7,489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,797
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Walker

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #3999

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston Parish · 87,496 people
• City population: 23,921
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 23,921
• Household income: $89,103
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 343.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.92%
• Current HPI: 164.6373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+287.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $225,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $225,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $235,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $235,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $245,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $245,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $253,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $253,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2015-07-21 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2015-02-09 Listed $149,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2015-02-09 Listed $149,900 GBRMLS
• 2014-08-20 Listed $149,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2014-08-20 Listed $149,900 GBRMLS
• 2014-04-07 Listed $159,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2014-04-07 Listed $159,900 GBRMLS
• 2014-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,044 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.