12206 Wisteria Dale Path · Atascocita, TX 77346

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2015 4,726 sqft lot $138/sqft · at area comps Est $251k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 3-bed, 2-bath home in Humble's desirable Claytons Park community! Enjoy the benefits of fully paid-off solar panels, helping to reduce energy costs! This single-story home features an open-concept layout with a spacious living area that seamlessly connects to the kitchen and dining space, creating an inviting setting. The private primary suite offers a large en-suite bathroom with dual vanities, while the secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or additional living needs. Step outside to a backyard patio and fully fenced yard. Additional highlights include an attached garage and a low-maintenance lifestyle. Conveniently located near schools, shopping,

Key facts

• Backyard patio
• Attached garage
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• FULLY PAID-OFF SOLAR PANELS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• BACKYARD PATIO
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• ATTACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by CREST MANAGEMENT; Annual association fee of $450

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor); Faces unspecified direction
• Construction: Built in 2015; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Atascocita Springs El (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 989 students, 37% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 32% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,349 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,167
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -0.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12302 Beacon Tree Ct	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (-0%)	0mo	$250,000	$139	81
4910 Blue Spruce Hl	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (-1%)	0mo	$268,000	$151	78
4826 Gypsy Forest Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (-0%)	1mo	$249,999	$140	74
11831 Rainbow Bridge Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-2%)	3mo	$239,000	$135	72
12107 English Brook Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-9%)	2mo	$260,000	$159	68
17806 June Forest Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-4%)	4mo	$230,000	$132	68
12223 Zenith Ridge Way	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,049 (+14%)	5mo	$255,000	$124	66
4922 Blue Spruce Hill St	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,915 (+6%)	6mo	$239,000	$125	63
12127 Carriage Oak Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,597 (-11%)	2mo	$256,000	$160	62
4814 Winding Timbers Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-11%)	1mo	$264,900	$165	54
4826 Drew Forest Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,002 (+11%)	2mo	$268,700	$134	49
11810 Manasses Springs Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-14%)	4mo	$249,999	$162	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,534
• Equity at exit: $60,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-46,570
• Equity at exit: $64,159

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$518 /mo · $6,221/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,489

Max offer price $221,349

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-86	+0% $-157	+5% $-227	+10% $-297
Rent	-10% $-337	-5% $-247	+0% $-157	+5% $-66	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-93	base $-157	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	7d	1	0.29mi
17834 Yellow Birch Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,646	$1.07	45d	1	0.31mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	13d	1	0.39mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,156	$0.92	1d	1	0.49mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,231	$0.95	1d	1	0.53mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	26d	1	0.59mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	26d	1	0.69mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	45d	1	0.72mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,306	$1.06	1d	1	0.79mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,806	$1.19	1d	1	1.07mi
3918 Atascocita Rd Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$1,650	$1.75	17d	13	1.10mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	45d	1	1.12mi
3818 Oaktrace Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	45d	1	1.21mi
17417 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,795	$1.88	0d	12	1.24mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	45d	1	1.26mi
17401 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,139	$1.97	0d	41	1.36mi
17571 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	922	$2,000	$2.17	1d	41	1.43mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	26d	1	1.44mi
3623 Village Grove Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,709	$1.22	19d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $249,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    price $249,000 847-char remark
17. 2026-03-26
    listed $250,000 Active 847-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,221 · $518/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,221 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$6,221
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,199
• − Management: −$2,199
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$6,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,446
• After-tax cash flow: $-432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $250,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,221 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.