14684 South Ascot Bend Cir · Cut and Shoot, TX 77306

$244,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,607 sqft · Land · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Pinehollow" Plan with Brick Elevation "H1" in Meadow Park! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Meadow Park Property Owners Association; Annual association fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story layout (all main rooms listed on first floor); Entry level on first floor
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 11); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (10 x 10, 10 x 10, 11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Under construction (new construction by Lennar)

🏗️ New construction. The $244,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $236,259.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $226,002 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.76%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,259
• List price: $244,990
• Delta: 3.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-18,120
• Equity at exit: $35,227

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $9,998
• Equity at exit: $20,427

Cash invested: $66,153 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,239
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $916/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,858

Max offer price $236,259

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,065
• Closing costs: $7,088
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14918 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$1,955	$0.99	43d	1	0.19mi
14990 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$2,400	$1.49	43d	1	0.19mi
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	22d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 530-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   price $244,990 530-char remark
3. 2026-05-07
   price $199,240 530-char remark
4. 2026-04-30
   price $199,690 530-char remark
5. 2026-04-27
   price $203,690 530-char remark
6. 2026-04-23
   listed $244,990 Active 530-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $916 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,483 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,567/yr (+$297/mo · 389.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,234
• − Property taxes: −$916
• − Insurance: −$1,181
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,170
• − Management: −$2,170
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$6,873
• Taxable loss: −$72
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17
• After-tax cash flow: $3,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $199,240 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $199,690 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $203,690 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $244,990 HARMLS