409 Village Cir SW · Eagle Lake, FL 33880

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1986 5,998 sqft lot $55/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well maintained 2BR/2BA with low HOA fees! Own your own lot in Village Park, a 55+ community featuring a clubhouse, heated pool and shuffle board along with motor home/boat parking for community owners! The home also features a 22 x 11 workshop/storage area under A/C! Call today to schedule your private showing!

Key facts

• Community clubhouse
• Fenced-in backyard
• One-car carport

Tags

• NEWLY SCREENED-IN FRONT PORCH
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• ONE-CAR CARPORT
• 22X11 WORKSHOP/STORAGE AREA
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Property type: Residential (Manufactured Home); Lot approximately 0.14 acres, paved road access
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $55; Total annual fees: $660; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $55; HOA includes pool, recreational facilities, and escrow reserves fund; Association approval required; Clubhouse; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Home faces East
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#196 in FL, #3,096 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $109k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.34%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $23
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $24,738
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Brad Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,720	$1.30	23d	1	0.38mi
449 Red Hawk Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,581	$1.43	3d	1	0.38mi
320 Spirit Landings Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	23d	1	1.08mi
233 Kensington View Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,975	$1.32	23d	1	1.08mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	3d	1	1.44mi
3060 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	762	$1,373	$1.80	23d	1	1.44mi
3074 St Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	860	$1,149	$1.34	14d	1	1.45mi
3039 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,175	$1.36	3d	1	1.45mi
3320 Timberline Rd W Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,735	$1.32	3d	1	1.47mi
1059 Spirit Lake Rd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,378	$1.53	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $129,000
16. 2026-04-28
    price $136,000
17. 2026-04-08
    price $138,900
18. 2026-04-02
    price $143,500
19. 2026-03-27
    listed $148,500 Active
20. 2022-04-11
    soldstatus $109,000
21. 2022-04-08
    soldstatus $97,000 Closed 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    This well maintained 2BR/2BA with low HOA fees! Own your own lot in Village Park, a 55+ community featuring a clubhouse, heated pool and shuffle board along with motor home/boat parking for community owners! The home also features a 22 x 11 workshop/storage area under A/C! Call today to schedule your private showing!

22. 2022-03-09
    status Pending 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    This well maintained 2BR/2BA with low HOA fees! Own your own lot in Village Park, a 55+ community featuring a clubhouse, heated pool and shuffle board along with motor home/boat parking for community owners! The home also features a 22 x 11 workshop/storage area under A/C! Call today to schedule your private showing!

23. 2022-03-07
    listed $109,000 Active 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    This well maintained 2BR/2BA with low HOA fees! Own your own lot in Village Park, a 55+ community featuring a clubhouse, heated pool and shuffle board along with motor home/boat parking for community owners! The home also features a 22 x 11 workshop/storage area under A/C! Call today to schedule your private showing!

24. 2020-07-15
    soldstatus $67,000
25. 2020-06-10
    soldstatus $67,000 Sold 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Lovely 2BR/2BA home in Village Park, a 55+ community featuring a clubhouse, heated pool, shuffleboard, and motor home/boat parking. Own your own lot with low HOA fees just $45/month. Plenty of room with 22X11 workshop/storage area under AC. New Roof 10/2019. New AC 4/2018. Flooring only 2 years old. Call for your appointment to see this great home. .. .. ..

26. 2020-04-24
    status Pending 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Lovely 2BR/2BA home in Village Park, a 55+ community featuring a clubhouse, heated pool, shuffleboard, and motor home/boat parking. Own your own lot with low HOA fees just $45/month. Plenty of room with 22X11 workshop/storage area under AC. New Roof 10/2019. New AC 4/2018. Flooring only 2 years old. Call for your appointment to see this great home. .. .. ..

27. 2020-04-06
    status Active 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Lovely 2BR/2BA home in Village Park, a 55+ community featuring a clubhouse, heated pool, shuffleboard, and motor home/boat parking. Own your own lot with low HOA fees just $45/month. Plenty of room with 22X11 workshop/storage area under AC. New Roof 10/2019. New AC 4/2018. Flooring only 2 years old. Call for your appointment to see this great home. .. .. ..

28. 2020-03-29
    status Pending 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Lovely 2BR/2BA home in Village Park, a 55+ community featuring a clubhouse, heated pool, shuffleboard, and motor home/boat parking. Own your own lot with low HOA fees just $45/month. Plenty of room with 22X11 workshop/storage area under AC. New Roof 10/2019. New AC 4/2018. Flooring only 2 years old. Call for your appointment to see this great home. .. .. ..

29. 2020-02-25
    listed $70,000 Active 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Lovely 2BR/2BA home in Village Park, a 55+ community featuring a clubhouse, heated pool, shuffleboard, and motor home/boat parking. Own your own lot with low HOA fees just $45/month. Plenty of room with 22X11 workshop/storage area under AC. New Roof 10/2019. New AC 4/2018. Flooring only 2 years old. Call for your appointment to see this great home. .. .. ..

30. 2017-06-19
    soldstatus $55,000
31. 2017-06-02
    soldstatus $55,000 Sold
32. 2017-05-19
    status Pending
33. 2017-04-30
    price $59,000
34. 2017-03-23
    listed $62,000 Active
35. 2013-05-06
    soldstatus $43,000
36. 2013-04-30
    soldstatus $43,000
37. 2012-09-26
    listed $49,500
38. 2012-01-25
    listed $45,900
39. 2011-10-13
    historical
40. 2011-04-14
    listed $49,900
41. 2006-05-09
    soldstatus $51,000
42. 2000-06-06
    soldstatus $40,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,274 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,274 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $2,170
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$521
• After-tax cash flow: $3,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Eagle Lake

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #3096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 4,397
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+217.0% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $136,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $138,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $143,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $148,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-08 Sold (MLS) $97,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-07 Listed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-10 Sold (MLS) $67,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-25 Listed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-02 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-30 Price Changed $59,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-23 Listed $62,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 2013-04-30 Sold (MLS) $43,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-26 Listed $49,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-25 Listed $45,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-14 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2000-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $40,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,274 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.