206 Ormsby St · Adrian, MI 49221

$119,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,367 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 1920 5,227 sqft lot Est $130k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom home that is move in ready. Recent updates include new kitchen, bath, flooring, paint, and carpet along with new mechanicals. All situated on large corner lot.

Key facts

• New bath
• New kitchen
• New carpet

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATH
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• NEW CARPET
• LARGE CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: City lot on a corner (49 x 104; 0.12 acre); Public maintained road
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Water available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator; Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Steam heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Oven; Refrigerator; Range; Has basement; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 5.6% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#342 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Adrian School District (town): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #370 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prairie Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,035 of 1,397 statewide, top 77%, 224 students, 80% FRL); Springbrook Middle School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #303 of 493 statewide, top 62%, 641 students, 71% FRL); Adrian High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #405 of 713 statewide, top 59%, 781 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.48%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,865
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
530 James St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,364 (-0%)	6mo	$130,000	$95	70
803 Ormsby St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,441 (+5%)	2mo	$69,700	$48	67
903 E Maple St	0.16mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,509 (+10%)	4mo	$52,500	$35	66
136 E Chestnut St E	0.48mi	4/1.0	1,440 (+5%)	3mo	$170,000	$118	66
709 N Locust St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,276 (-7%)	1mo	$38,000	$30	66
910 Chestnut St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,275 (-7%)	7mo	$120,000	$94	64
308 Toledo St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,242 (-9%)	6mo	$39,900	$32	63
126 E Albert St	0.67mi	4/1.0	1,288 (-6%)	2mo	$165,000	$128	58
512 French St	0.36mi	4/1.5	1,564 (+14%)	7mo	$133,000	$85	52
822 Elm St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,175 (-14%)	4mo	$135,000	$115	50
826 N Locust St	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,198 (-12%)	6mo	$205,000	$171	49
322 Lawrence Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,244 (-9%)	4mo	$134,900	$108	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $11,742
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $50,417
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49221

• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,686/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,037

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $557	-5% $523	+0% $489	+5% $455	+10% $421
Rent	-10% $358	-5% $424	+0% $489	+5% $555	+10% $620
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $520	base $489	+0.5pp $458	+1.0pp $426

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on market $119,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $126,900 Active Under Contract 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $126,900 Active Under Contract 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $126,900 Active Under Contract 71 DOM
18. 2026-04-07
    price $126,900 169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    4 bedroom home that is move in ready. Recent updates include new kitchen, bath, flooring, paint, and carpet along with new mechanicals. All situated on large corner lot.

19. 2026-04-06
    price $126,900
20. 2026-03-20
    listed $129,900 Active 169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    4 bedroom home that is move in ready. Recent updates include new kitchen, bath, flooring, paint, and carpet along with new mechanicals. All situated on large corner lot.

21. 2026-03-20
    listed $129,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    4 bedroom home that is move in ready. Recent updates include new kitchen, bath, flooring, paint, and carpet along with new mechanicals. All situated on large corner lot.

22. 2024-05-22
    historical
23. 2024-05-22
    historical
24. 2024-04-17
    price $85,000
25. 2024-04-17
    price $85,000
26. 2024-03-15
    listed $89,000 Active
27. 2024-03-15
    listed $89,000 Active
28. 2020-12-14
    soldstatus $595,000
29. 2020-12-14
    soldstatus $595,000
30. 2020-12-10
    soldstatus $51,678
31. 2020-12-10
    soldstatus $51,678 Closed
32. 2020-12-10
    listed $51,678
33. 2020-12-10
    listed $51,678 Active
34. 2017-01-09
    soldstatus $605,000
35. 2016-12-29
    soldstatus $26,923
36. 2016-12-29
    soldstatus $26,923 Closed
37. 2016-11-15
    status Pending
38. 2016-10-17
    listed Active
39. 2016-10-03
    listed
40. 2009-04-17
    historical
41. 2009-04-16
    historical
42. 2008-10-07
    listed $22,500
43. 2008-10-07
    listed $22,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,686 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,766 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$80/yr (+$7/mo · 4.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,686
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $4,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $4,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Adrian School District
• NCES district ID: 2601950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,288
• Composite: 25.33/100
• National rank: #7480
• State rank: #370 of 540 in MI

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #8722

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adrian, MI
• City population: 41,041
• Population (ZIP): 41,041

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.64%
• Current HPI: 237.3796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+464.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $126,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $126,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-20 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-20 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-22 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-22 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-04-17 Price Changed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-17 Price Changed $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-03-15 Listed $89,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-03-15 Listed $89,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $595,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $595,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-10 Listed $51,678 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-12-10 Listed $51,678 REALCOMP
• 2020-12-10 Sold (MLS) $51,678 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-12-10 Sold (MLS) $51,678 REALCOMP
• 2017-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $605,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-29 Sold (MLS) $26,923 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-12-29 Sold (MLS) $26,923 REALCOMP
• 2016-11-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-17 Listed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-03 Listed — REALCOMP
• 2009-04-17 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-04-16 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-10-07 Listed $22,500 REALCOMP
• 2008-10-07 Listed $22,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,686 · -22.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.