8854 Ginko Run · Parrish, FL 34219

$299,490

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,828 sqft · Land · 47 Days on market

Built 2025 3,667 sqft lot $159/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Introducing the Seastone, an elegant 1,828 square foot end-unit townhome that offers both style and functionality with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a spacious 2-car garage. From the moment you arrive, the curb appeal is undeniable with a paver driveway and walkway leading to dual entries—one through the side front door and another through the garage. Step inside to a bright, open-concept main floor that welcomes you with clear sightlines throughout the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. The kitchen is a chef’s dream, featuring cabinetry on two walls for generous storage, a walk-in pantry, and a strategicall

Key facts

• Central loft
• Walk-in closet
• Paver driveway

Tags

• PAVER DRIVEWAY
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• CENTRAL LOFT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL SINK VANITY
• GLASS-ENCLOSED SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-37/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $281,727 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-56,842
• Equity at exit: $44,655

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-81,086
• Equity at exit: $25,894

Cash invested: $83,857 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,817 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,492/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$159
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,821

Max offer price $299,047

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $204	-5% $100	+0% $-3	+5% $-107	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-114	+0% $-3	+5% $108	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $73	base $-3	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,872
• Closing costs: $8,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8850 Ginko Run Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,600	$1.54	16d	1	0.00mi
12484 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,600	$1.71	24d	1	0.75mi
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	4d	1	0.86mi
7148 Boggy Creek Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,929	$1.52	3d	1	1.07mi
6915 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	11d	1	1.27mi
6969 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	11d	1	1.34mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	24d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $159 · $1,908/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-04
   listed $299,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,776
• − Property taxes: −$4,492
• − Insurance: −$1,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,705
• − Management: −$2,705
• − HOA: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$8,712
• Taxable loss: −$4,988
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,197
• After-tax cash flow: $1,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Listed $299,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid