12019 Arcola St · Livonia, MI 48150

$164,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,018 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1957 5,227 sqft lot Est $162k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Livonia! This three bedroom, one bath home has everything you're looking for. The living room is open and airy, with plenty of light flowing in through the huge windows. The kitchen is cozy and inviting, with plenty of storage and another large window letting in tons of light, as well as an additional window over the sink. Three generously sized bedrooms, a main floor bathroom, and a dedicated laundry/utility room complete the package. Enjoy the outdoors in the fenced backyard or the patio area adjacent to the detached one car garage. Don't miss out on this opportunity, schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Patio area
• Fenced backyard
• 5,227 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• PATIO AREA
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard with fencing; Fenced lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.9% in Livonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in MI, #2,784 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety D, commute F.
• Livonia Public Schools School District (urban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #77 of 540 in MI (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $162,426 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.86%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,862
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11757 Eileen	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+2%)	0mo	$220,000	$212	73
12111 Inkster Rd	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,147 (+13%)	3mo	$155,000	$135	72
9624 Nathaline	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,019 (+0%)	3mo	$209,000	$205	65
10061 Seltzer St	0.49mi	3/2.0	972 (-4%)	2mo	$290,000	$298	64
9983 Hemingway	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,059 (+4%)	3mo	$149,000	$141	60
11748 Leverne	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,075 (+6%)	4mo	$142,000	$132	56
12135 Leverne	0.60mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,050 (+3%)	6mo	$167,000	$159	54
9656 Sioux	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (+10%)	2mo	$147,500	$132	49
28070 W Chicago St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	974 (-4%)	2mo	$295,000	$303	48
9648 Nathaline Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	894 (-12%)	4mo	$145,000	$162	45
9640 Nathaline	0.68mi	3/1.0	894 (-12%)	5mo	$125,000	$140	44
9560 Nathaline	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,125 (+10%)	1mo	$142,500	$127	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,580
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $28,774
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48150

• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,819 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,486/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $473	-5% $426	+0% $379	+5% $333	+10% $286
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $308	+0% $379	+5% $451	+10% $523
Rate	-1.0pp $462	-0.5pp $421	base $379	+0.5pp $337	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12097 Cavell St Livonia, MI	3.0	1.0	985	$1,200	$1.22	3d	1	0.11mi
11726 Deering St Livonia, MI	4.0	1.5	1248	$2,125	$1.70	0d	1	0.17mi
13231 Hemingway Redford, MI	3.0	1.5	1074	$1,700	$1.58	18d	1	0.94mi
11141 Karen St Livonia, MI	3.0	1.0	1322	$1,950	$1.48	11d	1	0.94mi
12107 Centralia Redford, MI	3.0	1.0	912	$1,800	$1.97	45d	1	0.96mi
27201 Canfield St W Dearborn Heights, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$1,499	$1.76	3d	22	1.34mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $164,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $174,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$527/yr (+$44/mo · 35.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,486
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $1,987
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$477
• After-tax cash flow: $4,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livonia Public Schools School District
• NCES district ID: 2621840
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,268
• Composite: 46.27/100
• National rank: #2480
• State rank: #77 of 540 in MI

Livability — Livonia

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #2784

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Livonia, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 56,806
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 26,687
• Household income: $97,997
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 110.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Italian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -341.08%
• Current HPI: 197.495
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+351.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $180,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-29 Listed $180,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-06 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-02-06 Sold (MLS) $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-01-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-01-07 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-01-03 Listed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-01-03 Listed $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-10-31 Sold (MLS) $38,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-10-31 Sold (MLS) $38,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-10-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-09-28 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-09-28 Listed $39,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,486 · -44.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.