422 E Harris St · Dublin, TX 76446

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 883 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 241 Days on market

Built 1940 7,841 sqft lot $40/sqft · 69% below area ↓ 56% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HAIL SALE!!! Investor Special or fixer upper! This two bedroom, one bathroom is home located in Dublin, TX close to the elementary school. It features solar panels that are paid for and cut your electric costs way down. Motivated Seller!!!

Key facts

• Solar panels
• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Built 1940

Tags

• SOLAR PANELS
• CLOSE TO ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($885 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 1.9% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#192 in TX, #4,899 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dublin ISD (rural): math 56% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #131 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dublin El (math 72% / reading 67%, grade A-, #146 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 420 students, 77% FRL); Dublin Int (math 61% / reading 42%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 237 students, 80% FRL); Dublin H S (math 48% / reading 53%, grade D+, #492 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 489 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Erath County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erath County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.78%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,397
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -68.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
422 E Harris St	0.00mi	2/1.0	883 (0%)	1mo	$35,000	$40	99
610 N Patrick St	0.30mi	2/1.0	952 (+8%)	22mo	$150,000	$158	55
644 E Sheridan Ave	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	912 (+3%)	21mo	$79,999	$88	54
311 N Park St	0.41mi	2/1.0	980 (+11%)	15mo	$175,000	$179	50
225 Hurt St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,012 (+15%)	17mo	$89,900	$89	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $19,233
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $48,967
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76446

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,329/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $391

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $400	+0% $390	+5% $380	+10% $370
Rent	-10% $320	-5% $355	+0% $390	+5% $425	+10% $460
Rate	-1.0pp $408	-0.5pp $399	base $390	+0.5pp $381	+1.0pp $372

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   HAIL SALE!!! Investor Special or fixer upper! This two bedroom, one bathroom is home located in Dublin, TX close to the elementary school. It features solar panels that are paid for and cut your electric costs way down. Motivated Seller!!!

2. 2026-05-13
   price $35,000 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   HAIL SALE!!! Investor Special or fixer upper! This two bedroom, one bathroom is home located in Dublin, TX close to the elementary school. It features solar panels that are paid for and cut your electric costs way down. Motivated Seller!!!

3. 2025-11-06
   price $60,000 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   HAIL SALE!!! Investor Special or fixer upper! This two bedroom, one bathroom is home located in Dublin, TX close to the elementary school. It features solar panels that are paid for and cut your electric costs way down. Motivated Seller!!!

4. 2025-09-18
   listed $80,000 Active 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   HAIL SALE!!! Investor Special or fixer upper! This two bedroom, one bathroom is home located in Dublin, TX close to the elementary school. It features solar panels that are paid for and cut your electric costs way down. Motivated Seller!!!

5. 2021-06-28
   soldstatus
6. 2002-03-22
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,329 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,329 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$1,329
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$849
• − Management: −$849
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $4,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,065
• After-tax cash flow: $3,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dublin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817580
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,446
• Composite: 45.4/100
• National rank: #2628
• State rank: #131 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dublin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #4899

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dublin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,144

Population outlook (Erath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,437 people
• By 2030: 55,510 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 66,379 · +31.6%
• By 2050: 77,981 · +54.6%
• By 2075: 109,727 · +117.6%
• By 2100: 132,574 · +162.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 17% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.7% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.5pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+63.9 2016: R+65.5 2012: R+67.1 2008: R+54.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.31%
• Current HPI: 240.5032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-56.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $35,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $60,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2021-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,329 · +20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.