2802 Wheeler St · Houston, TX 77004

$275,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1940 8,398 sqft lot $174/sqft · 21% below area Est $346k · 21% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Conveniently situated near Downtown, the Medical Center, one block from TCU, and a half mile from UofH universities, this 1940s property on a corner lot comes with an additional lot, offering great potential for adding value. Ideal for renovation or as a lucrative addition to a rental portfolio.

Key facts

• Half mile from uofh
• Near downtown
• One block from tcu

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ADDITIONAL LOT
• NEAR DOWNTOWN
• NEAR MEDICAL CENTER
• ONE BLOCK FROM TCU
• HALF MILE FROM UOFH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 581 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,355 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,387
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -20.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2619 Rosewood St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+4%)	4mo	$399,900	$243	82
2512 Cleburne St	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,597 (+1%)	4mo	$300,000	$188	78
2909 Arbor St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-1%)	8mo	$349,500	$223	77
2715 Arbor St	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,583 (+0%)	8mo	$325,000	$205	73
3439 Wentworth St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,587 (+0%)	1mo	$330,000	$208	64
2708 Arbor St	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,691 (+7%)	9mo	$259,000	$153	60
2821 Winbern St	0.40mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,640 (+4%)	11mo	$149,900	$91	59
5313 Palmer St	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,479 (-6%)	1mo	$245,000	$166	56
2015 Alabama St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,726 (+9%)	8mo	$149,990	$87	47
2210 Berry St	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,758 (+11%)	5mo	$410,000	$233	46
3508 Sauer St	0.50mi	3/3.5	1,737 (+10%)	7mo	$375,000	$216	45
2010 Blodgett St Unit G	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (+14%)	2mo	$368,500	$205	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-64,158
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-99,373
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77004

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$609 /mo · $7,308/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,741

Max offer price $240,355

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2703 Blodgett St Unit 1047952P Houston, TX	1.0–5.0	1.5–5.5	2497	$11,718	$4.69	2d	2	0.14mi
4306 Ennis St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1989	$2,500	$1.26	44d	1	0.14mi
2401 Eagle St Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,800	$1.65	44d	1	0.25mi
2615 Arbor St Unit 1047947P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,387	$2.00	2d	1	0.25mi
2615 Arbor St Unit 1047942P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,742	$2.30	22d	1	0.25mi
2319 Rosewood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1333	$1,515	$1.14	24d	1	0.25mi
2511 Arbor St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1368	$2,450	$1.79	11d	1	0.28mi
2311 Eagle St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1783	$2,500	$1.40	44d	1	0.30mi
2307 Arbor St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1325	$2,295	$1.73	44d	1	0.37mi
2209 Alabama St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2074	$2,350	$1.13	44d	1	0.47mi
3229 Holman St Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	1632	$1,200	$0.74	44d	1	0.61mi
1802 Wentworth St Unit 1542674P Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$6,374	$6.27	2d	2	0.63mi
4704 Chenevert St Unit B Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	44d	1	0.64mi
3603 Chenevert St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,129	$2.09	14d	8	0.69mi
3609 Chenevert St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1168	$1,749	$1.50	22d	1	0.70mi
3609 Chenevert St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1168	$1,749	$1.50	20d	1	0.70mi
3213 Saint Emanuel St Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	2100	$3,300	$1.57	17d	1	0.71mi
3012 Live Oak St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,395	$1.17	21d	1	0.71mi
1942 Prospect St Unit OHNP2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1279	$3,397	$2.66	5d	1	0.73mi
1942 Prospect St Unit OHNP2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1279	$3,397	$2.66	4d	1	0.73mi
5506 Sampson St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1287	$920	$0.71	24d	1	0.73mi
4899 La Branch St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1175	$2,191	$1.86	24d	1	0.84mi
5751 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1148	$2,040	$1.78	44d	1	0.91mi
5755 Almeda Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1148	$2,174	$1.89	11d	1	0.92mi
5755 Almeda Rd Unit 5792 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1148	$2,185	$1.90	12d	1	0.92mi
5755 Almeda Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1148	$2,150	$1.87	5d	1	0.92mi
5755 Almeda Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1148	$2,185	$1.90	5d	1	0.92mi
5755 Almeda Rd Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1148	$2,142	$1.87	3d	1	0.92mi
5755 Almeda Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1148	$2,150	$1.87	8d	1	0.92mi
3507 Canfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,350	$1.07	24d	1	0.92mi
5350 Crawford St Unit 5383 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1991	$4,460	$2.24	11d	1	0.94mi
5350 Crawford St Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1991	$4,428	$2.22	3d	1	0.94mi
3 Hermann Museum Circle Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$8,103	$7.53	44d	1	0.96mi
5815 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1209	$2,967	$2.45	12d	1	0.97mi
5501 La Branch St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	964	$4,875	$5.06	5d	245	0.99mi
1615 Hermann Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1175	$2,191	$1.86	44d	1	1.00mi
1699 Hermann Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	1331	$7,118	$5.35	2d	10	1.01mi
1615 Hermann Dr Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1292	$2,566	$1.99	3d	1	1.01mi
4001 Fannin St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1536	$3,158	$2.06	3d	16	1.02mi
1701 Hermann Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1210	$4,355	$3.60	3d	4	1.03mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Pending 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Pending 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Pending 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   status $275,000 Pending 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   price $275,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-04-18
    price $290,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Conveniently situated near Downtown, the Medical Center, one block from TCU, and a half mile from UofH universities, this 1940s property on a corner lot comes with an additional lot, offering great potential for adding value. Ideal for renovation or as a lucrative addition to a rental portfolio.

15. 2026-02-11
    listed $300,000 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Conveniently situated near Downtown, the Medical Center, one block from TCU, and a half mile from UofH universities, this 1940s property on a corner lot comes with an additional lot, offering great potential for adding value. Ideal for renovation or as a lucrative addition to a rental portfolio.

16. 1997-05-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,308 · $609/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,308 · $609/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$7,308
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,393
• − Management: −$2,393
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,669
• After-tax cash flow: $-684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,997
• Household income: $71,199
• Rent vs Own: 61.8% rent · 38.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.34%
• Current HPI: 199.6066
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 1997-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,308 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.