5327 Lost Forest Dr #5327 · Houston, TX 77092

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1974 1.13 ac lot $100/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home appears to need substantial work to bring it to market value. Perfect for a new investor just starting out. Please text agent at 832-648-4212 to schedule a tour.

Key facts

• $100 HOA
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Unknown association name; Association fee of $100 monthly

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Two stories; Built in 1974; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Brick exterior

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: One fireplace; Three total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $666 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 22.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $50k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.06%
• DSCR: 3.54
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,288
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5813 Village Forest Ct	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,516 (+2%)	5mo	$145,000	$96	65
5801 Lumberdale Rd #226	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,558 (+5%)	10mo	$175,000	$112	48
6200 W Tidwell Rd #601	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-8%)	9mo	$57,000	$42	45
6200 W Tidwell Rd #2608	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-8%)	11mo	$75,000	$55	44
5801 Lumberdale Rd #66	0.74mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,558 (+5%)	9mo	$165,000	$106	43
5861 Village Forest Ct	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,704 (+14%)	13mo	$119,995	$70	37
6200 W Tidwell Rd #304	0.74mi	3/3.0	1,274 (-14%)	2mo	$55,000	$43	36
5801 Lumberdale Rd #74	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,696 (+14%)	11mo	$195,000	$115	31
6200 W Tidwell Rd #502	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,274 (-14%)	12mo	$75,000	$59	31
5801 Lumberdale Rd #125	0.74mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (+13%)	11mo	$199,000	$118	28
5801 Lumberdale Rd #199	0.74mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (+13%)	11mo	$217,500	$129	28
5801 Lumberdale Rd #68	0.74mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (+13%)	12mo	$170,000	$101	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $30,260
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $65,353
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77092

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,407 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $666

Break-even live

Break-even rent $564

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5310 Lost Forest Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	808	$1,147	$1.42	12d	7	0.08mi
6230 Rena St Unit 1316407P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1765	$6,957	$3.94	3d	1	0.25mi
5959 Pinemont Dr Unit 6016 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	920	$1,182	$1.28	3d	1	0.27mi
6318 Leaf Arbor Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,250	$1.52	43d	1	0.28mi
5359 Deep Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,409	$1.15	24d	1	0.29mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 1012 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$859	$0.84	7d	1	0.41mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0614 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$985	$0.84	43d	1	0.41mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0508 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	917	$777	$0.85	2d	1	0.41mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0903 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	917	$795	$0.87	43d	1	0.41mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0217 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$880	$0.86	43d	1	0.41mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0405 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$880	$0.86	7d	1	0.41mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0816 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,260	$1.07	2d	1	0.41mi
5853 Village Forest Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,600	$1.40	43d	1	0.44mi
5555 Antoine Dr Apt 401 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$912	$0.89	7d	1	0.49mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0804 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,008	$0.85	2d	1	0.49mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0102 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	917	$755	$0.82	24d	1	0.49mi
5555 Antoine Dr Apt 502 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	917	$781	$0.85	7d	1	0.49mi
5555 Antoine Dr Apt 309 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	917	$822	$0.90	7d	1	0.49mi
5670 Birchmont Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	968	$1,250	$1.29	43d	1	0.49mi
5550 Bingle Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,580	$1.33	19d	1	0.50mi
5550 Bingle Rd Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,355	$1.14	7d	1	0.51mi
5550 Bingle Rd Unit 2228 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,379	$1.16	2d	1	0.51mi
5550 Bingle Rd Unit 5607 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,379	$1.16	10d	1	0.51mi
5550 Bingle Rd Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,347	$1.13	2d	1	0.51mi
5550 Bingle Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,355	$1.14	5d	1	0.51mi
5550 Bingle Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,390	$1.17	11d	1	0.51mi
5625 Antoine Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$900	$0.86	1d	7	0.52mi
5625 Antoine Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	888	$900	$1.01	24d	12	0.52mi
5500 Antoine Dr Unit 232 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1020	$970	$0.95	43d	1	0.52mi
5500 Antoine Dr Unit 144 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$940	$1.05	43d	1	0.52mi
5500 Antoine Dr Apt 222 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,050	$0.91	43d	1	0.52mi
6150 W Tidwell Rd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,389	$1.40	7d	1	0.60mi
6150 W Tidwell Rd Unit 6187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,381	$1.39	2d	1	0.60mi
6150 W Tidwell Rd Unit 6207 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,239	$1.25	15d	1	0.60mi
6200 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1101	$1,300	$1.18	2d	11	0.65mi
5131 Spring Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,295	$1.27	24d	1	0.69mi
6506 W 43rd St Unit 1115 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,550	$1.13	43d	1	0.70mi
6506 W 43rd St Unit 1115 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,550	$1.13	22d	1	0.70mi
5801 N Houston Rosslyn Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	739	$1,060	$1.43	43d	18	0.70mi
4222 Lockfield St Unit 606A Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$1,525	$1.74	43d	1	0.84mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-03
   remarks 166-char remark
2. 2026-06-03
   listed $50,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,350
• − Management: −$1,350
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $7,724
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,854
• After-tax cash flow: $6,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,938
• Household income: $58,728
• Rent vs Own: 59.4% rent · 40.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1979.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 25% Two or more races 22% Black 11% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.24%
• Current HPI: 300.5572
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.36%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+108.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listed $50,000 HARMLS
• 2017-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,570 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.