615 Chester St · Elmira, NY 14904

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,027 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1953 7,425 sqft lot $141/sqft · 22% above area Est $119k · 22% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this cozy ranch style home. Freshly painted exterior with a newer roof only about 4 years in age! Laundry on first floor that leads out into the spacious back yard with shed. Partially finished basement makes for a good man cave or workshop!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Spacious back yard
• 7,425 sq ft lot

Tags

• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• NEWER ROOF
• LAUNDRY ON FIRST FLOOR
• SPACIOUS BACK YARD
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 10.1% in Elmira — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ernie Davis Academy (math 5% / reading 31%, grade F, #691 of 729 statewide, top 95%, 802 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $136,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.84%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,147
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 21.70%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 S Walnut St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-3%)	1mo	$122,000	$122	80
628 Decker Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,062 (+3%)	3mo	$125,000	$118	79
719 Dubois St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-2%)	4mo	$120,000	$119	76
317 Morrowfield Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (+4%)	4mo	$35,500	$33	72
405 Balsam St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,081 (+5%)	5mo	$22,000	$20	69
614 Chester St	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	875 (-15%)	4mo	$112,765	$129	65
609 Decker Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+12%)	4mo	$45,000	$39	60
515 Stacia Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	912 (-11%)	7mo	$92,000	$101	54
310 Cottage Pl	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,178 (+15%)	6mo	$32,000	$27	49
777 Laurel St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+12%)	6mo	$145,000	$126	46
629 Stacia	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+14%)	9mo	$134,900	$115	43
635 Newtown St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	913 (-11%)	8mo	$123,500	$135	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,884
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $6,814
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,509 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,086/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,259

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $239	+0% $198	+5% $157	+10% $116
Rent	-10% $78	-5% $138	+0% $198	+5% $257	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $271	-0.5pp $235	base $198	+0.5pp $160	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Jefferson St Unit A Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	45d	1	0.29mi
550 Spruce St Unit 303 Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	45d	1	0.39mi
363 W Water St #2 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,250	$1.15	45d	1	0.81mi
235 Allen St Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	780	$950	$1.22	45d	1	0.90mi
514 W 1st St Unit A Elmira, NY	4.0	1.0	1416	$1,275	$0.90	45d	1	0.91mi
454 W 2nd St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,000	$0.71	45d	1	1.00mi
106 W 2nd St Unit A Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1395	$1,400	$1.00	45d	1	1.23mi
1210 W Water St Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,995	$1.49	45d	1	1.32mi
410 E 2nd St Unit FS3W Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Welcome to this cozy ranch style home. Freshly painted exterior with a newer roof only about 4 years in age! Laundry on first floor that leads out into the spacious back yard with shed. Partially finished basement makes for a good man cave or workshop!

2. 2026-03-23
   status Active 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Welcome to this cozy ranch style home. Freshly painted exterior with a newer roof only about 4 years in age! Laundry on first floor that leads out into the spacious back yard with shed. Partially finished basement makes for a good man cave or workshop!

3. 2026-03-17
   historical Active Under Contract 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Welcome to this cozy ranch style home. Freshly painted exterior with a newer roof only about 4 years in age! Laundry on first floor that leads out into the spacious back yard with shed. Partially finished basement makes for a good man cave or workshop!

4. 2026-03-06
   listed $145,000 Active 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Welcome to this cozy ranch style home. Freshly painted exterior with a newer roof only about 4 years in age! Laundry on first floor that leads out into the spacious back yard with shed. Partially finished basement makes for a good man cave or workshop!

5. 2025-09-10
   soldstatus $110,000 Closed 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Move right in to this cute as a button ranch style home on an adorable corner lot! This home has an updated kitchen, kitchen island, first floor laundry, 3 bedrooms and a full basement with lots of storage space, a utility room and a new furnace. Featuring both a front covered porch and a back deck you can choose your outdoor experience. The corner lot is large and flat with plenty of space for outdoor games and a picnic table. Only offers with proof of funds will be considered, $1,000 min EMD.

6. 2025-07-30
   status Pending 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Move right in to this cute as a button ranch style home on an adorable corner lot! This home has an updated kitchen, kitchen island, first floor laundry, 3 bedrooms and a full basement with lots of storage space, a utility room and a new furnace. Featuring both a front covered porch and a back deck you can choose your outdoor experience. The corner lot is large and flat with plenty of space for outdoor games and a picnic table. Only offers with proof of funds will be considered, $1,000 min EMD.

7. 2025-07-29
   listed $109,900 Active 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Move right in to this cute as a button ranch style home on an adorable corner lot! This home has an updated kitchen, kitchen island, first floor laundry, 3 bedrooms and a full basement with lots of storage space, a utility room and a new furnace. Featuring both a front covered porch and a back deck you can choose your outdoor experience. The corner lot is large and flat with plenty of space for outdoor games and a picnic table. Only offers with proof of funds will be considered, $1,000 min EMD.

8. 2019-02-21
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,086 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,268 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$182/yr (+$15/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,086
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $63
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15
• After-tax cash flow: $2,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmira

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #16139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmira, NY
• City population: 14,276
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+480.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-17 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $145,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-09-10 Sold (MLS) $110,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-07-30 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $109,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,086 · -11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.