Eagle Plan · Ruskin, FL 34221

$357,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,271 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The two-story Eagle floor plan offers 2,271 square feet of thoughtfully designed, open-concept living space featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a versatile loft, and a 2-car garage. On the first floor, you'll find a welcoming foyer that flows into a spacious great room, dining area, and modern kitchen, plus a convenient half bath. Upstairs, enjoy a flexible loft space, three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and laundry room. Your private primary suite is also located upstairs and includes a spacious bathroom with dual vanity sinks, a walk-in shower, and a generous walk-in closet. To top it off, the home includes a relaxing patio for seamless indoor/outdoor living-perfect for soaking up

Key facts

• Relaxing patio
• Modern kitchen
• Versatile loft

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• VERSATILE LOFT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• RELAXING PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $357,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan named Eagle; Active listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Living area of 2271

🏗️ New construction. The $357,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $381,528.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $358k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-845/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,248/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $324,835 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $381,528
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13721 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,271 (0%)	1mo	$364,999	$161	89
13811 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,271 (0%)	3mo	$365,000	$161	87
13509 Shellmore Ave	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,168 (-4%)	0mo	$365,000	$168	87
13431 Shellmore Ave	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,168 (-4%)	2mo	$380,000	$175	86
13407 Shellmore Ave	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,168 (-4%)	2mo	$340,000	$157	86
9324 Chiswell Trl	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,271 (0%)	3mo	$339,000	$149	83
13307 Shellmore Ave	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,190 (-4%)	7mo	$400,000	$183	82
9142 Dalera Cv	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,168 (-4%)	3mo	$378,000	$174	80
13423 Shellmore Ave	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,964 (-14%)	2mo	$339,030	$173	67
13828 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,504 (+10%)	0mo	$385,000	$154	64
9320 Chiswell Trl	0.26mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,516 (+11%)	0mo	$365,900	$145	60
13713 Iona Ave	0.60mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,085 (-8%)	1mo	$550,000	$264	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-75,782
• Equity at exit: $56,887

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-108,359
• Equity at exit: $32,988

Cash invested: $106,828 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,001
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$477 /mo · $5,723/yr
• Insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,338

Max offer price $371,333

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $61	+0% $-70	+5% $-202	+10% $-334
Rent	-10% $-327	-5% $-199	+0% $-70	+5% $58	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $27	base $-70	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,382
• Closing costs: $11,446
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11628 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$3,500	$1.63	23d	1	1.11mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	21d	1	1.19mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	25d	1	1.31mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	5d	1	1.36mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	25d	1	1.40mi
7518 117th Ln E Palmetto, FL	3.0	3.0	2156	$3,100	$1.44	25d	1	1.43mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $357,999 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $357,999 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $357,999 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $357,999 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $357,999 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $357,999 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $357,999 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $357,999 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $357,999 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $357,999 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $357,999 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $357,999 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $357,999 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $357,999 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $357,999 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,371
• − Property taxes: −$5,723
• − Insurance: −$1,908
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,118
• − Management: −$3,118
• − Depreciation: −$11,099
• Taxable loss: −$7,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,766
• After-tax cash flow: $920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-maintained exterior, interior, and landscaping, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B