11332 Annie Creek Dr · Conroe, TX 77378

$199,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Land · 210 Days on market

Built 2019 $101/sqft · 17% below area Est $240k · 17% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this well-maintained 5-bedroom, 3-bath manufactured home situated on a peaceful ¾-acre lot offering space, privacy, and beautiful natural surroundings. With an open and functional layout, this home provides plenty of room for everyone — whether you need extra bedrooms, a home office, or space to entertain. Step out the back door onto the deck and patio, the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee while overlooking the green space and mature trees. With no rear neighbors, you’ll love the quiet, private setting and serene views year-round. Located in an incredibly quiet area, this property is ideal for anyone seeking a little extra elbow room without sacrificing comfort or convenience. Priced to sell, this one has everything you’ve been looking for — come see it before it’s gone!

Key facts

• Green space
• Serene views
• Peaceful lot

Tags

• PEACEFUL LOT
• GREEN SPACE
• MATURE TREES
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• PRIVATE SETTING
• SERENE VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 720 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.00%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,951
• List price: $199,990
• Delta: -16.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-13,109
• Equity at exit: $29,819

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,576
• Equity at exit: $17,291

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 720
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,803

Max offer price $199,990

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $511	-5% $442	+0% $373	+5% $304	+10% $235
Rent	-10% $193	-5% $283	+0% $373	+5% $463	+10% $553
Rate	-1.0pp $474	-0.5pp $424	base $373	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Pending 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Pending 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $199,990 Pending 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,990 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,990 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,990 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,990 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,990 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,990 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,990 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-05-12
    price $199,990 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Welcome home to this well-maintained 5-bedroom, 3-bath manufactured home situated on a peaceful ¾-acre lot offering space, privacy, and beautiful natural surroundings. With an open and functional layout, this home provides plenty of room for everyone — whether you need extra bedrooms, a home office, or space to entertain. Step out the back door onto the deck and patio, the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee while overlooking the green space and mature trees. With no rear neighbors, you’ll love the quiet, private setting and serene views year-round. Located in an incredibly quiet area, this property is ideal for anyone seeking a little extra elbow room without sacrificing comfort or convenience. Priced to sell, this one has everything you’ve been looking for — come see it before it’s gone!

12. 2026-03-09
    price $209,900 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Welcome home to this well-maintained 5-bedroom, 3-bath manufactured home situated on a peaceful ¾-acre lot offering space, privacy, and beautiful natural surroundings. With an open and functional layout, this home provides plenty of room for everyone — whether you need extra bedrooms, a home office, or space to entertain. Step out the back door onto the deck and patio, the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee while overlooking the green space and mature trees. With no rear neighbors, you’ll love the quiet, private setting and serene views year-round. Located in an incredibly quiet area, this property is ideal for anyone seeking a little extra elbow room without sacrificing comfort or convenience. Priced to sell, this one has everything you’ve been looking for — come see it before it’s gone!

13. 2026-01-14
    price $229,950 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Welcome home to this well-maintained 5-bedroom, 3-bath manufactured home situated on a peaceful ¾-acre lot offering space, privacy, and beautiful natural surroundings. With an open and functional layout, this home provides plenty of room for everyone — whether you need extra bedrooms, a home office, or space to entertain. Step out the back door onto the deck and patio, the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee while overlooking the green space and mature trees. With no rear neighbors, you’ll love the quiet, private setting and serene views year-round. Located in an incredibly quiet area, this property is ideal for anyone seeking a little extra elbow room without sacrificing comfort or convenience. Priced to sell, this one has everything you’ve been looking for — come see it before it’s gone!

14. 2025-11-17
    listed $239,950 Active 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Welcome home to this well-maintained 5-bedroom, 3-bath manufactured home situated on a peaceful ¾-acre lot offering space, privacy, and beautiful natural surroundings. With an open and functional layout, this home provides plenty of room for everyone — whether you need extra bedrooms, a home office, or space to entertain. Step out the back door onto the deck and patio, the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee while overlooking the green space and mature trees. With no rear neighbors, you’ll love the quiet, private setting and serene views year-round. Located in an incredibly quiet area, this property is ideal for anyone seeking a little extra elbow room without sacrificing comfort or convenience. Priced to sell, this one has everything you’ve been looking for — come see it before it’s gone!

15. 2025-08-20
    soldstatus Closed 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Willis, Camp Creek Acres offers a warm, inviting community surrounded by the beauty of nature. With spacious, tree-filled lots and light restrictions, you’ll have the freedom to build the home of your dreams or bring in your mobile home – the choice is yours. Enjoy a peaceful atmosphere perfect for families of all kinds, just a short drive from The Woodlands, Houston, and Conroe. Located in an up-and-coming school district, this is a place where you can truly put down roots. Come be a part of something special – don’t miss your chance to own a piece of Texas in Camp Creek Acres!

16. 2025-08-14
    status Pending 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Willis, Camp Creek Acres offers a warm, inviting community surrounded by the beauty of nature. With spacious, tree-filled lots and light restrictions, you’ll have the freedom to build the home of your dreams or bring in your mobile home – the choice is yours. Enjoy a peaceful atmosphere perfect for families of all kinds, just a short drive from The Woodlands, Houston, and Conroe. Located in an up-and-coming school district, this is a place where you can truly put down roots. Come be a part of something special – don’t miss your chance to own a piece of Texas in Camp Creek Acres!

17. 2025-05-29
    listed $93,950 Active 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Willis, Camp Creek Acres offers a warm, inviting community surrounded by the beauty of nature. With spacious, tree-filled lots and light restrictions, you’ll have the freedom to build the home of your dreams or bring in your mobile home – the choice is yours. Enjoy a peaceful atmosphere perfect for families of all kinds, just a short drive from The Woodlands, Houston, and Conroe. Located in an up-and-coming school district, this is a place where you can truly put down roots. Come be a part of something special – don’t miss your chance to own a piece of Texas in Camp Creek Acres!

18. 2025-05-29
    historical

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Willis, Camp Creek Acres offers a warm, inviting community surrounded by the beauty of nature. With spacious, tree-filled lots and light restrictions, you’ll have the freedom to build the home of your dreams or bring in your mobile home – the choice is yours. Enjoy a peaceful atmosphere perfect for families of all kinds, just a short drive from The Woodlands, Houston, and Conroe. Located in an up-and-coming school district, this is a place where you can truly put down roots. Come be a part of something special – don’t miss your chance to own a piece of Texas in Camp Creek Acres!

19. 2025-04-15
    status Active
20. 2025-02-07
    status Pending
21. 2024-12-27
    listed $93,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,184
• − Management: −$2,184
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,408
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$338
• After-tax cash flow: $4,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+112.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $229,950 HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $239,950 HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $93,950 HARMLS
• 2025-04-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-27 Listed $93,950 HARMLS