40 Raiches Cross Rd · Danby, VT 05739

$169,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · Other · 334 Days on market

Built 1810 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 1810 Colonial has many original features but needs renovations and repairs. Estate is selling "AS IS"

Key facts

• Full renovation
• Mountain views
• Detached garage

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FULL RENOVATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Currier Memorial Union School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #186 of 192 statewide, top 97%, 76 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Rutland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Rutland County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 334 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $169k implies a 724% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1810 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 334 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1810 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.70%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $23,748
• Equity at exit: $69,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $79,057
• Equity at exit: $102,835

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05739

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,822/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,403

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-09
   price $169,000
3. 2025-05-09
   listed $199,000 Active
4. 2019-09-03
   historical 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Beautiful 1810 Colonial has many original features but needs renovations and repairs. Estate is selling "AS IS"

5. 2019-06-24
   soldstatus $20,500
6. 2019-06-21
   soldstatus $20,000 Closed 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Beautiful 1810 Colonial has many original features but needs renovations and repairs. Estate is selling "AS IS"

7. 2019-06-07
   status Pending 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Beautiful 1810 Colonial has many original features but needs renovations and repairs. Estate is selling "AS IS"

8. 2019-06-02
   listed $29,900 Active 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Beautiful 1810 Colonial has many original features but needs renovations and repairs. Estate is selling "AS IS"

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,822 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,517 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$694/yr (+$58/mo · 38.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,822
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,524
• − Management: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$1,046
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$251
• After-tax cash flow: $2,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Danby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danby, VT
• Population (ZIP): 1,268

Population outlook (Rutland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,307 people
• By 2030: 52,364 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 45,751 · -17.3%
• By 2050: 39,627 · -28.4%
• By 2075: 29,080 · -47.4%
• By 2100: 20,673 · -62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 6% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rutland

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.3) · D 51.3% · R 46.0% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: 24.6pp · 2024: 5.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.3 2020: D+10.5 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+22.0 2008: D+24.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.33%
• Current HPI: 174.1393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+465.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $169,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed $199,000 PrimeMLS
• 2019-09-03 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2019-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $20,500 Public Records
• 2019-06-21 Sold (MLS) $20,000 PrimeMLS
• 2019-06-07 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2019-06-02 Listed $29,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+16.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,822 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.