95 Addison Dr · Berlin, VT 05602

$99,403

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 343 Days on market

Built 2025 $108/sqft · 10% below area Est $105k · 6% under $573/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 95 Addison Dr. Berlin, VT, where modern comfort meets affordability in LaGue, Inc. MHP! This brand-new #10 Colony DS1019P model manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 880 sq. ft. (13'4" x 66) of thoughtfully designed living space. Step inside to an open-concept layout with stylish finishes, a bright living area, and a well-appointed kitchen. The home features energy-efficient construction, modern appliances, and low-maintenance materials, making it perfect for easy living. Located in a peaceful and well-maintained community, this home is ideal for those looking for a move-in-ready option in a convenient location. Don’t miss out on this opportunity! Contact us today for more details or to schedule a tour. The interior is 100% complete. Home is available for showing. This property participates in the Mobile Home Infill Program (MHIP) and is open to anyone who works or lives in Vermont.

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 343 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $687 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 343 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $99k implies a 1320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $87,474 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 343 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.23%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,400
• List price: $99,403
• Delta: -5.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Addison Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	924 (0%)	7mo	$68,000	$74	90
31 Bennington Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	880 (-5%)	2mo	$109,000	$124	87
120 Bennington Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (-9%)	1mo	$107,000	$127	78
46 Bennington Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	869 (-6%)	8mo	$103,799	$119	76
84 Addison Dr	0.02mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+6%)	24mo	$75,000	$77	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $51,045
• Equity at exit: $14,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $131,847
• Equity at exit: $8,595

Cash invested: $27,833 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05602

• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$521
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $326/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$573
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $1,049

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,472

Max offer price $99,403

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,105	-5% $1,077	+0% $1,049	+5% $1,021	+10% $993
Rent	-10% $828	-5% $938	+0% $1,049	+5% $1,160	+10% $1,270
Rate	-1.0pp $1,099	-0.5pp $1,074	base $1,049	+0.5pp $1,023	+1.0pp $997

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,851
• Closing costs: $2,982
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 Forest Dr #3 Montpelier, VT	2.0	1.0	972	$2,800	$2.88	45d	1	0.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $573 · $6,876/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,403 Active 343 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,403 Active 341 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,403 Active 340 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,403 Active 339 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,403 Active 338 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,403 Active 337 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,403 Active 335 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,403 Active 334 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,403 Active 331 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,403 Active 330 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,403 Active 329 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,403 Active 325 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,403 Active 324 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,403 Active 323 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,403 Active 322 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,403 Active 321 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    status Active 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    Welcome to 95 Addison Dr. Berlin, VT, where modern comfort meets affordability in LaGue, Inc. MHP! This brand-new #10 Colony DS1019P model manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 880 sq. ft. (13'4" x 66) of thoughtfully designed living space. Step inside to an open-concept layout with stylish finishes, a bright living area, and a well-appointed kitchen. The home features energy-efficient construction, modern appliances, and low-maintenance materials, making it perfect for easy living. Located in a peaceful and well-maintained community, this home is ideal for those looking for a move-in-ready option in a convenient location. Don’t miss out on this opportunity! Contact us today for more details or to schedule a tour. The interior is 100% complete. Home is available for showing. This property participates in the Mobile Home Infill Program (MHIP) and is open to anyone who works or lives in Vermont.

18. 2026-04-25
    historical Active with Contract 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    Welcome to 95 Addison Dr. Berlin, VT, where modern comfort meets affordability in LaGue, Inc. MHP! This brand-new #10 Colony DS1019P model manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 880 sq. ft. (13'4" x 66) of thoughtfully designed living space. Step inside to an open-concept layout with stylish finishes, a bright living area, and a well-appointed kitchen. The home features energy-efficient construction, modern appliances, and low-maintenance materials, making it perfect for easy living. Located in a peaceful and well-maintained community, this home is ideal for those looking for a move-in-ready option in a convenient location. Don’t miss out on this opportunity! Contact us today for more details or to schedule a tour. The interior is 100% complete. Home is available for showing. This property participates in the Mobile Home Infill Program (MHIP) and is open to anyone who works or lives in Vermont.

19. 2025-07-24
    price $99,403 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    Welcome to 95 Addison Dr. Berlin, VT, where modern comfort meets affordability in LaGue, Inc. MHP! This brand-new #10 Colony DS1019P model manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 880 sq. ft. (13'4" x 66) of thoughtfully designed living space. Step inside to an open-concept layout with stylish finishes, a bright living area, and a well-appointed kitchen. The home features energy-efficient construction, modern appliances, and low-maintenance materials, making it perfect for easy living. Located in a peaceful and well-maintained community, this home is ideal for those looking for a move-in-ready option in a convenient location. Don’t miss out on this opportunity! Contact us today for more details or to schedule a tour. The interior is 100% complete. Home is available for showing. This property participates in the Mobile Home Infill Program (MHIP) and is open to anyone who works or lives in Vermont.

20. 2025-07-13
    listed $98,903 Active 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    Welcome to 95 Addison Dr. Berlin, VT, where modern comfort meets affordability in LaGue, Inc. MHP! This brand-new #10 Colony DS1019P model manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 880 sq. ft. (13'4" x 66) of thoughtfully designed living space. Step inside to an open-concept layout with stylish finishes, a bright living area, and a well-appointed kitchen. The home features energy-efficient construction, modern appliances, and low-maintenance materials, making it perfect for easy living. Located in a peaceful and well-maintained community, this home is ideal for those looking for a move-in-ready option in a convenient location. Don’t miss out on this opportunity! Contact us today for more details or to schedule a tour. The interior is 100% complete. Home is available for showing. This property participates in the Mobile Home Infill Program (MHIP) and is open to anyone who works or lives in Vermont.

21. 2019-12-26
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $326 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,108 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$781/yr (+$65/mo · 239.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,568
• − Property taxes: −$326
• − Insurance: −$497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − HOA: −$6,876
• − Depreciation: −$2,892
• Taxable income: $12,065
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,896
• After-tax cash flow: $9,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Berlin

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,491

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,608 people
• By 2030: 54,731 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 50,227 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 45,893 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 36,818 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 28,143 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.4) · D 70.0% · R 26.6% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.4 2020: D+46.1 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.34%
• Current HPI: 344.3382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+1320.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-25 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $99,403 PrimeMLS
• 2025-07-13 Listed $98,903 PrimeMLS
• 2019-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2019): $326 · -15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.