125 Delaney Rd · Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$179,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,465 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1974 3.00 ac lot $123/sqft · 18% below area Est $222k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet country living but close to town and enmities. This three-bedroom two bath home sits on three acres with a three-stall garage w/ electric. Bed, bath and laundry all located on main floor. Washer and dryer are included. One bedroom has been completely renovated. The living room has a beautiful stone woodburning fireplace. There's a nice sized kitchen with appliances included (stove and dishwasher are new) with dining area and sliding door that leads to the back deck. The home is sided with metal roof that is ten years old and parking area large enough for several vehicles. The furnace is two years old as is the water heater and water softener. There's a full front sitting porch with that is handicap accessible. The owner has covering for porch during the winter months. The drilled well is 58'. The Amish shed does not go with the home. It is being removed. The owner purchased 75' past the back tree line.

Key facts

• Four acres
• Three stall garage
• Main floor laundry

Tags

• FOUR ACRES
• THREE STALL GARAGE
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• COMPLETELY RENOVATED BEDROOM
• STONE WOODBURNING FIREPLACE
• BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (35.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 5.3% in Ogdensburg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Heuvelton Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #394 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $115,280 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.71%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,041
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -18.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-19,281
• Equity at exit: $62,045

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-12,030
• Equity at exit: $82,942

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13669

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,527/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $115,280

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-264	-5% $-315	+0% $-366	+5% $-417	+10% $-468
Rent	-10% $-460	-5% $-413	+0% $-366	+5% $-318	+10% $-271
Rate	-1.0pp $-275	-0.5pp $-320	base $-366	+0.5pp $-412	+1.0pp $-460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-13
   listed $179,900 Active 921-char remark

   Show marketing remark (921 chars)

   Quiet country living but close to town and enmities. This three-bedroom two bath home sits on three acres with a three-stall garage w/ electric. Bed, bath and laundry all located on main floor. Washer and dryer are included. One bedroom has been completely renovated. The living room has a beautiful stone woodburning fireplace. There's a nice sized kitchen with appliances included (stove and dishwasher are new) with dining area and sliding door that leads to the back deck. The home is sided with metal roof that is ten years old and parking area large enough for several vehicles. The furnace is two years old as is the water heater and water softener. There's a full front sitting porch with that is handicap accessible. The owner has covering for porch during the winter months. The drilled well is 58'. The Amish shed does not go with the home. It is being removed. The owner purchased 75' past the back tree line.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,527 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,527 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$3,527
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,150
• − Management: −$1,150
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$7,660
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,839
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heuvelton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614310
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $49,486
• Composite: 42.27/100
• National rank: #3272
• State rank: #394 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ogdensburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,615

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Polish 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Current HPI: 264.0261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $179,900 SLCMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,527 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.