12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd Spc 25 · Winter Gardens, CA 92021

$235,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $210k · 12% over ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully Updated Home in an All-Ages Community — Discover a wonderfully maintained home built in 2002, offering comfort, functionality, and fresh updates throughout. This inviting space features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, including a spacious main bedroom with anadditional flex room—ideal for a home office, hobby space, or relaxation area. Property Highlights • Fresh Interior Touches: New flooring andresurfaced kitchen cabinets paired with stylish quartz countertops. • New Exterior Paint: Clean, updated curb appeal you’ll appreciate from themoment you arrive. • Prime Corner Location: Offers a pleasant sense of openness and added privacy. • Community

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New exterior paint
• New flooring

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• FLEX ROOM
• NEW FLOORING
• RESURFACED KITCHEN CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; located in Vista Del Cajon community

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces total
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Brick fencing; Community pool; On-site shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Has a living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $932 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.7% in Winter Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#515 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lakeside Union Elementary (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #480 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,918/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 4178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.00%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,375
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd Spc 25	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,275 (0%)	1mo	$235,000	$184	99
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd Spc 45	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-2%)	14mo	$183,000	$147	80
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd #17	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-2%)	15mo	$275,000	$220	76
8128 Royal Park Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+7%)	12mo	$150,000	$110	68
12044 Royal Rd #120	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,325 (+4%)	14mo	$219,000	$165	60
1315 Pepper Dr #72	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,220 (-4%)	10mo	$194,000	$159	52
1351 Pepper Dr #26	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-6%)	10mo	$160,000	$133	52
1351 Pepper Dr #18	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,140 (-11%)	3mo	$184,000	$161	49
1351 Pepper Dr Spc 41	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+10%)	8mo	$235,000	$168	46
1315 Pepper Dr #67	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+13%)	3mo	$145,000	$101	39
1315 Pepper Dr #86	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+5%)	18mo	$275,000	$205	39
12690 Jackson Hill Dr Spc 24	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+13%)	19mo	$272,000	$189	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $12,639
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $53,971
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $512/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $932

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,065	-5% $999	+0% $932	+5% $866	+10% $519
Rent	-10% $702	-5% $817	+0% $932	+5% $1,048	+10% $1,163
Rate	-1.0pp $1,051	-0.5pp $992	base $932	+0.5pp $871	+1.0pp $809

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8424 Pueblo Rd Unit 8424 Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	2d	1	0.30mi
8031 Winter Gardens Blvd El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1124	$2,995	$2.66	2d	1	0.44mi
2000 E Main St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5–2.5	1165	$3,300	$2.83	2d	1	0.83mi
9094 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$4,000	$3.33	2d	1	1.20mi
9092 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1300	$4,000	$3.08	2d	1	1.20mi
1221 Oro St El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$2,575	$2.52	2d	1	1.28mi
8410 Los Coches Rd El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,239	$2.49	2d	1	1.32mi
9205 Emerald Grove Ave Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.0	1652	$3,650	$2.21	3d	1	1.37mi
1696 Buckeye Dr El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	942	$2,900	$3.08	2d	1	1.38mi
1365 Broadway El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$3,478	$3.48	2d	1	1.40mi
1314 5 D Dr Unit 1318 El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	960	$2,600	$2.71	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $235,000 Active
3. 2026-03-26
   historical
4. 2026-01-21
   listed $250,000 Active
5. 2026-01-21
   historical
6. 2026-01-07
   price $260,000
7. 2025-11-13
   listed $264,998 Active
8. 2025-04-11
   soldstatus $243,250 Sold
9. 2025-04-01
   status Pending
10. 2025-02-10
    listed $249,000 Active
11. 2025-02-01
    historical
12. 2025-01-03
    listed $289,700 Active
13. 2025-01-01
    historical
14. 2024-11-07
    listed $299,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $512 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,786 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,274/yr (+$106/mo · 248.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥98°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$512
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,801
• − Management: −$2,801
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $7,727
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,855
• After-tax cash flow: $9,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620790
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,574
• Composite: 43.51/100
• National rank: #6453
• State rank: #480 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Winter Gardens

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #17448

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Gardens, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-21.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $235,000 SDMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $250,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $260,000 SDMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $264,998 SDMLS
• 2025-04-11 Sold (MLS) $243,250 SDMLS
• 2025-04-01 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-02-10 Listed $249,000 SDMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listed $289,700 SDMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-11-07 Listed $299,900 SDMLS

Property tax history

-16.2%/yr

Latest (2013): $512 · -52.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.