81-302 Duplex Ln · Flat Rock, NC 24053

$1,650,000

None bd · None ba · 17,786 sqft · MultiFamily · 703 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Discover a prime investment opportunity in the Ararat community of Patrick County, just minutes from the City of Mt. Airy, NC. This property includes three brick ranch homes and 16 duplexes, each equipped with a range, refrigerator, washer, and dryer. In 2020, all units received new roofs and gutters, along with numerous updated heat pumps and other improvements. The three brick ranch homes each feature three bedrooms. The duplexes comprise four three-bedroom units, eleven two-bedroom units, and one one-bedroom unit. This excellent location is within walking distance of Blue Ridge Elementary School and Dan River Park. Additionally, the property spans over 16 acres, offering ample space for future expansion.

Key facts

• 40 parking spots
• Built 1971
• Listed 702 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a multifamily listed at $1.65M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.61M (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.45M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.5% in Flat Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#330 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $137k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $126k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $462k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$220k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 703 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.45M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $1,452,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 703 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.52%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $726,804
• Equity at exit: $1,211,536

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $2,044,585
• Equity at exit: $2,365,885

Cash invested: $462,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24053

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Price-to-rent: 161.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,653
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,062 /mo · $24,750/yr
• Insurance: −$688
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,392
• Net cashflow: $1,356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,434

Max offer price $1,650,000

Occupancy floor 87%

19-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 7× units	3	2	$5,950
▸ 11× units	2	1	$9,350
1× unit	1	1	$850
Total (19 units)			$16,150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $412,500
• Closing costs: $49,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 703 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 702 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 701 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 700 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 699 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 697 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 696 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 693 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 692 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 691 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 688 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 687 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 686 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 685 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 684 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 683 DOM
17. 2024-07-16
    listed $1,650,000 Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Discover a prime investment opportunity in the Ararat community of Patrick County, just minutes from the City of Mt. Airy, NC. This property includes three brick ranch homes and 16 duplexes, each equipped with a range, refrigerator, washer, and dryer. In 2020, all units received new roofs and gutters, along with numerous updated heat pumps and other improvements. The three brick ranch homes each feature three bedrooms. The duplexes comprise four three-bedroom units, eleven two-bedroom units, and one one-bedroom unit. This excellent location is within walking distance of Blue Ridge Elementary School and Dan River Park. Additionally, the property spans over 16 acres, offering ample space for future expansion.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $193,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$92,426
• − Property taxes: −$24,750
• − Insurance: −$8,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,504
• − Management: −$15,504
• − Depreciation: −$48,000
• Taxable loss: −$10,634
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,552
• After-tax cash flow: $18,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This property presents as a good investment opportunity with a good exterior condition and minimal repairs needed. Fresh paint and landscaping can significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Some areas of the lawn appear overgrown

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Some areas of the lawn appear overgrown	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patrick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102880
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,331
• Composite: 60.52/100
• National rank: #842
• State rank: #18 of 131 in VA

Livability — Flat Rock

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #13447

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,461

Population outlook (Patrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,918 people
• By 2030: 16,097 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,317 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 12,476 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 9,051 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 6,138 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Patrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -30.6pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+30.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Current HPI: 143.3491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-07-16 Listed $1,650,000 MHPCAR