63 Rusty Iron Way Unit FRACTIONAL 1/17th- 3 WEEKS · Rexford, MT 59917

$39,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,408 sqft · Townhouse · 231 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition 2,439 sqft lot $161/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Wilderness waterpark
• Luxury cabin

Tags

• LUXURY CABIN
• EXCLUSIVE GATED COMMUNITY
• WILDERNESS WATERPARK
• WILDERNESS GRILLE
• FITNESS CENTER
• FOREST SERVICE TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained, private road with asphalt surface; Irrigation water rights; Level topography
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool and spa/hot tub, basketball and game courts, boat dock, picnic area, park, trails, pond (year-round), snow removal, security, landscaping and maintained grounds; Association fee includes electricity, insurance, internet, grounds and structure maintenance, sewer, security, trash, water and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Phone available; Underground utilities; Public sewer
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Residential property; Views and waterfront access to Wilderness Lake; Located on a cul-de-sac with landscaped backyard and meadow views
• Construction: Wood siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Exterior storage; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closet(s)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Wood-burning or gas fireplace (one)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $40k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.2% vs local median 0.6% in Rexford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#306 in MT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Eureka Elementary (rural): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #62 of 116 in MT (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.85%
• DSCR: 3.84
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $31,512
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.86×
• Total profit: $76,672
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59917

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,305 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$161
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $553

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $622	-5% $608	+0% $594	+5% $581	+10% $567
Rent	-10% $491	-5% $543	+0% $594	+5% $646	+10% $698
Rate	-1.0pp $615	-0.5pp $605	base $594	+0.5pp $584	+1.0pp $574

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $161 · $1,932/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 227 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $39,900 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $51,500 Active 222 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $51,500 Active 221 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $51,500 Active 220 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $51,500 Active 219 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $51,500 Active 216 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $51,500 Active 215 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $51,500 Active 214 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $51,500 Active 213 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $51,500 Active 212 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $51,500 Active 211 DOM
18. 2025-10-31
    listed $51,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,253
• − Management: −$1,253
• − HOA: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,031
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,688
• After-tax cash flow: $5,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This property is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good roof and flooring, and the landscaping is well-maintained. Painting the exterior and maintaining the landscaping would be the highest-ROI updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value
• Rental Maintain landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping attracts tenants and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Maintain landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping attracts tenants and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eureka Elementary
• NCES district ID: 3010080
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,034
• Composite: 32.68/100
• National rank: #5655
• State rank: #62 of 116 in MT

Livability — Rexford

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #306
• US rank: #24394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,086

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,226 people
• By 2030: 15,974 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 13,415 · -22.1%
• By 2050: 11,546 · -33.0%
• By 2075: 9,990 · -42.0%
• By 2100: 11,055 · -35.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.4) · D 22.2% · R 75.6% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.0pp · 2024: -53.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.4 2020: R+49.7 2016: R+50.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+29.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.57%
• Current HPI: 271.9646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-31 Listed $51,500 MRMLS