204 N Stardust Ln · Bluewater, AZ 85344

$134,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Built 1968 Fair condition $160/sqft · 124% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NO PROPERTY TAX & NO HOA! Enjoy affordable river living on leased land in this beautifully upgraded home featuring a spacious 3 car garage and numerous recent improvements. You'll love the new windows, fresh paint, and new flooring throughout, along with a fully drywalled interior that gives the home a modern residential feel. Covered carport provides additional parking and convenience, while the fenced backyard dog run is perfect for pets. Plenty of room for vehicles, boats, river toys, and storage. Community amenities include a 24 Hr guard gated community, private launch ramp, pool, park area, fenced dog park, and clubhouse. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or the pe

Key facts

• Covered carport
• No property tax
• No hoa

Tags

• NO PROPERTY TAX
• NO HOA
• UPGRADED
• FULLY DRYWALLED INTERIOR
• COVERED CARPORT
• FENCED BACKYARD DOG RUN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Bluewater Lagoon subdivision
• HOA & community: Land is leased

Exterior

• Parking: Detached oversized garage with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property
• Construction: Vertical siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: RV hookup; Block and chain link fencing; Gunite pool

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fans for cooling; Wall/window cooling units; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $134k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $130,465 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.13%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,000
• List price: $134,500
• Delta: 124.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
322 N Misty Ln	0.20mi	2/2.0	840 (0%)	5mo	$112,500	$134	87
401 Bluewater Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	750 (-11%)	2mo	$60,000	$80	64
408 N Stardust Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	720 (-14%)	0mo	$52,500	$73	63
314 N Moonlight Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	7mo	$50,000	$52	62
431 Paradise Ln	0.42mi	2/2.0	720 (-14%)	18mo	$103,000	$143	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,467
• Equity at exit: $20,054

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $46,413
• Equity at exit: $11,629

Cash invested: $37,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85344

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$168 /mo · $2,018/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,177

Max offer price $134,500

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,625
• Closing costs: $4,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,500 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,500 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,500 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,500 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,500 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $134,500 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $145,000 Active 595-char remark
18. 2025-07-09
    listed $165,000 Active
19. 2021-07-31
    soldstatus $110,000
20. 2021-03-21
    listed $115,000
21. 2021-01-12
    listed $115,000
22. 2012-12-19
    listed $65,000
23. 2012-02-28
    soldstatus $50,000
24. 2012-01-24
    listed $49,900
25. 2011-07-09
    listed $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,534
• − Property taxes: −$2,018
• − Insurance: −$672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$3,913
• Taxable income: $3,780
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$907
• After-tax cash flow: $4,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on the roof, exterior siding, and windows. Painting the interior walls and repairing these areas would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — visible wear
• Major exterior siding — visible wear
• Major windows — visible wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — improves appearance and value
• Both repair roof — extends home's lifespan and improves appearance
• Both repair exterior siding — extends home's lifespan and improves appearance
• Both repair windows — extends home's lifespan and improves appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — improves appearance and value ↑
• Both repair roof — extends home's lifespan and improves appearance ↑
• Both repair exterior siding — extends home's lifespan and improves appearance ↑
• Both repair windows — extends home's lifespan and improves appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parker Unified School District (4510)
• NCES district ID: 0405980
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,354
• Composite: 14.76/100
• National rank: #9392
• State rank: #200 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bluewater

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #12872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bluewater, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,069

Population outlook (La Paz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,409 people
• By 2030: 17,592 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 16,600 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 16,328 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 17,075 · -7.2%
• By 2100: 17,042 · -7.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Native American 23% Two or more races 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · La Paz

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.2) · D 27.6% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.2 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.38%
• Current HPI: 198.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+107.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $134,500 LHAR
• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $140,000 LHAR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $145,000 LHAR
• 2025-07-09 Listed $165,000 LHAR
• 2021-07-31 Sold (MLS) $110,000 LHAR
• 2021-03-21 Listed $115,000 LHAR
• 2021-01-12 Listed $115,000 LHAR
• 2012-12-19 Listed $65,000 WARDEX
• 2012-02-28 Sold (MLS) $50,000 WARDEX
• 2012-01-24 Listed $49,900 WARDEX
• 2011-07-09 Listed $64,900 WARDEX