9867 W Heather Dr · Arizona City, AZ 85123

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1988 7,688 sqft lot Est $216k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOTS OF CURB APPEAL WHEN YOUR DRIVE UP!! THIS CUTE 3 BEDROOM HOME HAS BEEN REMODELED WITH HANDICAP FEATURES INCLUDING THE BATHROOMS. NEW CARPET IN ONE BEDROOM. OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH DINING AREA OFF GREAT ROOM AND KITCHEN. SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN, LARGE ENCLOSED COVERED PATIO, STORAGE ROOM WITH ACCESS TO 1 CAR GARAGE. FRONT INCLUDES EXTRA DRIVEWAY AND SHADED PARKING. ADD A BLOCK FENCE AND GORGEOUS BACK YARD.

Key facts

• New hvac
• Spacious lot
• No hoa

Tags

• NEW HVAC
• SPACIOUS LOT
• NO HOA
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• EASY ACCESS TO MAIN ROADS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees; Community amenities include a lake and a playground

Exterior

• Parking: One covered parking space; One open parking space; Garage with automatic door opener; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Private sewer; Private water company; 220 volts available in kitchen (electric)
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Desert view; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; 220 volts in kitchen; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms (includes secondary/possible bedroom options); At least 2 master bedrooms configuration available
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling; Central air; Ceiling fans; Window/wall unit
• Interior features: High-speed internet; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Pantry; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath; Solar panels; Accessible approach with ramp; Exterior curb cuts; Bath lever faucets; Bath grab bars; Screened-in patio(s)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.2% in Arizona City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#246 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arizona City Elementary School (math 6% / reading 15%, grade F, #993 of 1,109 statewide, top 91%, 744 students, 87% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $175k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,985 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.53%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,728
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10032 W Carousel Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+4%)	4mo	$214,990	$186	84
8719 W Magnum Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,113 (+0%)	1mo	$209,000	$188	66
9163 W Raven Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,145 (+3%)	5mo	$222,000	$194	66
9364 W Oneida Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (+9%)	1mo	$215,000	$178	66
9343 W Pineveta Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+10%)	2mo	$242,500	$198	64
9455 W Troy Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,225 (+10%)	3mo	$210,500	$172	63
9401 W Coronado Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,228 (+10%)	3mo	$250,000	$204	61
9163 W Santa Cruz Blvd	0.55mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,081 (-3%)	5mo	$205,000	$190	58
8980 W Coronado Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,228 (+10%)	3mo	$249,900	$204	52
14075 S Avalon Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,221 (+10%)	2mo	$240,000	$197	50
14169 S Tampico Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+12%)	2mo	$243,999	$197	46
10931 W Benito Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+11%)	4mo	$196,500	$160	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-21,876
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,955
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85123

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $429/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $153	+0% $103	+5% $54	+10% $4
Rent	-10% $-10	-5% $47	+0% $103	+5% $160	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $148	base $103	+0.5pp $58	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9254 W Pineveta Dr Arizona City, AZ	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,325	$1.10	4d	1	0.44mi
9105 W Raven Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,500	$1.21	12d	1	0.49mi
9098 W Magnum Dr Unit 4 Arizona City, AZ	2.0	1.0	808	$900	$1.11	23d	1	0.52mi
9033 W Oneida Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,500	$1.23	26d	1	0.53mi
13971 S Rosemont Rd Unit 2 (479) Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.5	1260	$1,350	$1.07	7d	1	0.54mi
10800 W Carousel Dr Unit A Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	0d	1	0.57mi
9301 W Century Dr Unit A (273) Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	7d	1	0.58mi
9975 W Lynx Dr Unit D Arizona City, AZ	2.0	1.0	816	$775	$0.95	0d	1	0.68mi
14282 S Vera Cruz Rd Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,500	$1.25	18d	1	0.74mi
11176 W Cambria Cir Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	0d	1	0.81mi
8536 W Tinajas Dr Arizona City, AZ	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,475	$1.21	26d	1	0.85mi
8281 W Sandy Ln Unit 3 Arizona City, AZ	2.0	2.0	741	$885	$1.19	7d	1	1.02mi
14735 S Amado Blvd Arizona City, AZ	3.0	1.5	1155	$1,650	$1.43	0d	1	1.05mi
13185 S San Simon Rd Unit B Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,475	$1.13	4d	1	1.06mi
8339 W Santa Cruz Blvd Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.5	1178	$1,225	$1.04	26d	1	1.10mi
15147 S Yava Rd Unit A Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,450	$1.02	22d	1	1.22mi
11991 W Cabrillo Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,595	$1.11	25d	1	1.29mi
11188 W Ventana Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,675	$1.30	0d	1	1.31mi
15280 S Amado Blvd Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,599	$1.08	0d	1	1.41mi
15588 S Yava Rd Unit b Arizona City, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,099	$1.37	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-05-15
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
4. 2026-05-05
   listed $175,000 Active
5. 2014-05-30
   soldstatus $62,000 Closed 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   LOTS OF CURB APPEAL WHEN YOUR DRIVE UP!! THIS CUTE 3 BEDROOM HOME HAS BEEN REMODELED WITH HANDICAP FEATURES INCLUDING THE BATHROOMS. NEW CARPET IN ONE BEDROOM. OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH DINING AREA OFF GREAT ROOM AND KITCHEN. SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN, LARGE ENCLOSED COVERED PATIO, STORAGE ROOM WITH ACCESS TO 1 CAR GARAGE. FRONT INCLUDES EXTRA DRIVEWAY AND SHADED PARKING. ADD A BLOCK FENCE AND GORGEOUS BACK YARD.

6. 2014-05-30
   soldstatus $62,000

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   LOTS OF CURB APPEAL WHEN YOUR DRIVE UP!! THIS CUTE 3 BEDROOM HOME HAS BEEN REMODELED WITH HANDICAP FEATURES INCLUDING THE BATHROOMS. NEW CARPET IN ONE BEDROOM. OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH DINING AREA OFF GREAT ROOM AND KITCHEN. SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN, LARGE ENCLOSED COVERED PATIO, STORAGE ROOM WITH ACCESS TO 1 CAR GARAGE. FRONT INCLUDES EXTRA DRIVEWAY AND SHADED PARKING. ADD A BLOCK FENCE AND GORGEOUS BACK YARD.

7. 2014-04-30
   status Pending 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   LOTS OF CURB APPEAL WHEN YOUR DRIVE UP!! THIS CUTE 3 BEDROOM HOME HAS BEEN REMODELED WITH HANDICAP FEATURES INCLUDING THE BATHROOMS. NEW CARPET IN ONE BEDROOM. OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH DINING AREA OFF GREAT ROOM AND KITCHEN. SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN, LARGE ENCLOSED COVERED PATIO, STORAGE ROOM WITH ACCESS TO 1 CAR GARAGE. FRONT INCLUDES EXTRA DRIVEWAY AND SHADED PARKING. ADD A BLOCK FENCE AND GORGEOUS BACK YARD.

8. 2014-04-11
   listed $62,900 Active 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   LOTS OF CURB APPEAL WHEN YOUR DRIVE UP!! THIS CUTE 3 BEDROOM HOME HAS BEEN REMODELED WITH HANDICAP FEATURES INCLUDING THE BATHROOMS. NEW CARPET IN ONE BEDROOM. OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH DINING AREA OFF GREAT ROOM AND KITCHEN. SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN, LARGE ENCLOSED COVERED PATIO, STORAGE ROOM WITH ACCESS TO 1 CAR GARAGE. FRONT INCLUDES EXTRA DRIVEWAY AND SHADED PARKING. ADD A BLOCK FENCE AND GORGEOUS BACK YARD.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $429 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$726/yr (+$60/mo · 169.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$429
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$428
• After-tax cash flow: $1,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Arizona City

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #22768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arizona City, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 10,003
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,003
• Household income: $69,137
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.30%
• Current HPI: 283.5405
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+178.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2014-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-30 Sold (MLS) $62,000 ARMLS
• 2014-04-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2014-04-11 Listed $62,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

-14.7%/yr

Latest (2014): $429 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.