96 Monterey Ln · Folsom, CA 95630

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1996 $150/sqft · 65% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully upgraded home in the highly desirable 55+ senior community of Lake Park Estates. Perfectly situated near Folsom Lake, shopping, dining, and recreational trails, this property offers both convenience and a vibrant lifestyle. Step inside to find an immaculate interior that has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Enjoy peace of mind with a newer roof and tasteful finishes that make this home truly move-in ready. The light-filled living spaces flow seamlessly, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. Outside, you'll appreciate the well-maintained grounds and access to fantastic community amenities, including a sparkling swimming poolperfect for staying active or so

Key facts

• Upgraded home
• Community amenities
• Near folsom lake

Tags

• UPGRADED HOME
• NEAR FOLSOM LAKE
• WELL MAINTAINED GROUNDS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SPARKLING SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $889 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 2.5% in Folsom — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#190 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Folsom-Cordova Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #365 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.74%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,931
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 64.54%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Shady Oaks Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	800 (0%)	12mo	$69,000	$86	87
208 Bluebird Ln	0.14mi	2/1.0	780 (-2%)	15mo	$136,500	$175	77
60 Birch Ln	0.11mi	1/0.5 (-1)	852 (+6%)	3mo	$47,500	$56	75
40 Shady Oaks Dr	0.14mi	2/1.0	832 (+4%)	21mo	$139,800	$168	69
36 Shady Oaks Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0	736 (-8%)	17mo	$117,000	$159	67
248 Lark Ln #248	0.16mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	23mo	$74,000	$103	57
210 Danielle Way #2	0.32mi	2/1.0	684 (-14%)	6mo	$90,000	$132	56
302 Raymond Ln #102	0.40mi	2/2.0	848 (+6%)	17mo	$75,000	$88	53
20 Shady Oaks Dr	0.11mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (-12%)	20mo	$82,000	$117	53
166 Pinebrook	0.75mi	2/1.5	720 (-10%)	14mo	$139,000	$193	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $34,433
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $91,953
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95630

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,175 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $889

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $972	-5% $930	+0% $889	+5% $847	+10% $806
Rent	-10% $717	-5% $803	+0% $889	+5% $975	+10% $1,061
Rate	-1.0pp $949	-0.5pp $919	base $889	+0.5pp $858	+1.0pp $826

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7550 Folsom Auburn Rd Folsom, CA	1.0	1.0	674	$1,990	$2.95	3d	3	0.24mi
1600 Canyon Terrace Ln Folsom, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,348	$2.46	2d	18	1.14mi
1000 Folsom Ranch Dr Folsom, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	830	$2,399	$2.89	2d	18	1.17mi
308 Figueroa St Folsom, CA	1.0	1.0	549	$1,600	$2.91	24d	1	1.45mi
113 Mormon St Unit B Folsom, CA	2.0	1.0	728	$2,095	$2.88	2d	1	1.46mi
106 Natoma St Folsom, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,425	$2.59	17d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,088
• − Management: −$2,088
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $9,310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,234
• After-tax cash flow: $8,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Folsom-Cordova Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613890
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -38.00%
• Median HH income: $75,408
• Composite: 24.49/100
• National rank: #7656
• State rank: #365 of 517 in CA

Livability — Folsom

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #190
• US rank: #6125

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Folsom, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 79,484
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,484
• Household income: $139,642
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1651.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.39%
• Current HPI: 286.0579
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $103 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.