27 Mount Logan Ln · Toms River, NJ 08753

$270,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1968 6,969 sqft lot $189/sqft · at area comps Est $269k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great home with great bones. Extra large lot with extra square footage inside. Home has a new roof to go with the solar system. New Furnace and water heater. You will have to do some work inside to make it yours.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New water heater
• Extra large lot

Tags

• EXTRA LARGE LOT
• NEW ROOF
• SOLAR SYSTEM
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (Holiday City Silverton); Quarterly HOA fee of $75; Community amenities: Pool, Clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: Saratoga
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Solar via purchase power agreement; Fee simple ownership

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Baseboard heating; Cooling (other)
• Interior features: AC units included; Ceramic tile and wood flooring; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Dover Elementary School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #513 of 1,303 statewide, top 40%, 394 students, 33% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $229k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,898 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.60%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,824
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: 0.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1729 Yorktowne Blvd	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,336 (-6%)	6mo	$430,000	$322	70
1990 Hovsons Blvd	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-9%)	4mo	$489,000	$376	65
1164B Argyll Cir	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,490 (+4%)	7mo	$290,000	$195	56
1161A Argyll Cir	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,490 (+4%)	8mo	$295,000	$198	55
1161B Argyll Cir	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,490 (+4%)	10mo	$282,000	$189	53
1263 Hamilton Ct Unit B	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,246 (-13%)	8mo	$205,000	$165	45
1087-B Argyll Cir	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,246 (-13%)	5mo	$289,000	$232	43
1126A Argyll Cir Unit A	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,246 (-13%)	4mo	$220,000	$177	41
966A Argyll Cir	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,246 (-13%)	1mo	$307,000	$246	41
95 Golden Seasons Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,603 (+12%)	2mo	$400,000	$250	40
1122C Argyll Cir	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,246 (-13%)	6mo	$290,000	$233	39
966A Argyll Cir	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,246 (-13%)	10mo	$195,000	$157	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-40,994
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-42,022
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,469 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,554/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,341

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $177	+0% $101	+5% $24	+10% $-52
Rent	-10% $-94	-5% $3	+0% $101	+5% $198	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $170	base $101	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	5d	1	0.80mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	20d	1	1.13mi
19 Silverside Rd Lakewood, NJ	2.0	2.0	1512	$2,600	$1.72	26d	1	1.16mi
73 S Shore Dr Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	960	$2,975	$3.10	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 214-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $270,000 Active 214-char remark
3. 1993-12-09
   soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,554 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,139 · $428/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,584/yr (+$132/mo · 44.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$3,554
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,370
• − Management: −$2,370
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$3,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$791
• After-tax cash flow: $2,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+308.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-02 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $270,000 MOMLS
• 1993-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,554 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.