2514 Alonda Ln NE · Lacey, WA 98516

$174,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $140k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3 Bedroom home in quiet 55+ Park! Features open concept, vaulted ceiling, new hardwood floors, & lots of windows for natural light. Galley kitchen shows great with custom cabinets, comfort height counters with plenty of counter space, nice eating area and pantry. All appliances included. Separate family room with new carpet, new paint, cellular blinds, and 3M window tint. Oversized primary bedroom with walk-in closet and 5-piece primary bathroom. New hot water tank. Heat pump/AC, sprinkler system, large storage building, and 2 patios for entertaining. Low maintenance yard, and backs up to beautiful trees. Home is light, bright & in immaculate condition! Close to shoppin

Key facts

• Pantry
• Custom cabinets
• Open concept

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• COMFORT HEIGHT COUNTERS
• EATING AREA
• PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Public records list building area of 1,728; Double pane windows noted as energy efficient
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Manufactured home park with clubhouse and common area; Alonda Villa park (approximately 129 homes); Senior community designation; Pets: see remarks; Land lease: $1,250

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Uncovered parking
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water; Community septic; Electric water heater (located in primary bedroom walk-in closet); Puget Sound Energy for power; Xfinity cable and internet
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Entry and living/family/dining rooms included; Very good condition; Mobile home remains in place
• Construction: Wood construction; Wood skirt; Built-up and composition roofing; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Manufactured after 6/15/1976 (Baycrest)
• Exterior features: Wood exterior products; Paved lot; Storage at back of carport

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Water heater; Awnings; Bath off primary; Ceiling fans; Double-pane windows; Drapes; Landscaped; Patio/porch/deck; Security system; Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Bay Elementary (588 students, 40% FRL); Chinook Middle School (788 students, 54% FRL); North Thurston High School (1,440 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 31% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $171,882 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.61%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,968
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2504 Alonda Ln NE	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-3%)	2mo	$114,900	$68	91
2516 Alonda Ln NE #2516	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-9%)	7mo	$135,250	$86	78
2015 Alonda Ln NE	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+4%)	17mo	$145,000	$81	76
2203 Alonda Ln NE	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-11%)	5mo	$95,000	$62	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $32,311
• Equity at exit: $26,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $111,757
• Equity at exit: $15,088

Cash invested: $48,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98516

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,580 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,558/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $921

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,415

Max offer price $174,500

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,020	-5% $970	+0% $921	+5% $871	+10% $822
Rent	-10% $717	-5% $819	+0% $921	+5% $1,023	+10% $1,125
Rate	-1.0pp $1,009	-0.5pp $965	base $921	+0.5pp $876	+1.0pp $830

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,625
• Closing costs: $5,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
927 College Ln NE Unit A Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1390	$2,300	$1.65	45d	1	0.30mi
925 Bradley St NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,650	$1.89	45d	1	0.41mi
5224 15th Ave NE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,630	$2.99	15d	258	0.47mi
808 Taylor Ln NE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.5	1740	$2,195	$1.26	22d	1	0.57mi
5499 15th Ave NE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$2,535	$2.80	15d	26	0.64mi
1848 Mapleview Ct NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,000	$2.01	45d	1	0.73mi
3719 22nd Ave NE Olympia, WA	4.0	2.5	2100	$3,095	$1.47	45d	1	0.76mi
606 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$2,725	$2.82	15d	7	0.88mi
2400 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	1904	$2,795	$1.47	15d	3	0.98mi
4410 6th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,425	$2.47	15d	14	1.19mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,500 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   status $174,500 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   status $174,500 Pending 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,500 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,500 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,500 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,500 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $174,500 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $174,500 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,500 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $174,500 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    remarks 691-char remark
13. 2026-05-30
    listed $184,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$152/yr (+$13/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,775
• − Property taxes: −$1,558
• − Insurance: −$872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,477
• − Management: −$2,477
• − Depreciation: −$5,076
• Taxable income: $8,727
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,094
• After-tax cash flow: $8,954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 29,177
• Household income: $98,892
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1202.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.16%
• Current HPI: 323.7121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+191.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $174,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-29 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-28 Listed $184,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-06 Sold (MLS) $175,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-19 Listed $174,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-16 Sold (MLS) $149,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-04 Listed $149,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-09-10 Sold (MLS) $55,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-05 Listed $59,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,558 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.