10304 107th Pl N · Maple Grove, MN 55369

$295,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,954 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1979 0.38 ac lot Est $406k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well located three level split offering comfort, space, and opportunity. Situated in a prime area close to parks, shopping, dining, and convenient commuting routes, this home checks all the boxes for everyday living. The main level features a spacious living room highlighted by a cozy gas fireplace and walkout access to the deck and expansive backyard; perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings. Upstairs, you’ll find three generously sized bedrooms. The lower level family room includes a bar area, making it an ideal space for entertaining or movie nights. Additional highlights include main floor laundry and a roof replaced 5 years ago. This home is ready for your perso

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Main floor laundry
• Bar area

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• WALKOUT ACCESS
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• BAR AREA
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• ROOF REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($189/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Maple Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#54 in MN, #1,353 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D.
• Osseo Public School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #129 of 301 in MN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elm Creek Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #423 of 857 statewide, top 55%, 521 students, 41% FRL); Osseo Middle School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #97 of 258 statewide, top 39%, 1,155 students, 41% FRL); Osseo Senior High (math 26% / reading 58%, grade F, #222 of 471 statewide, top 50%, 2,280 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $295k implies a 372% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $265,305 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $406,432
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10698 Boundary Creek Ter	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,803 (-8%)	16mo	$375,000	$208	55
10013 Hidden Oaks Ln N	0.43mi	3/3.0	2,107 (+8%)	12mo	$468,000	$222	49
11140 Gettysburg Ave N	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,088 (+7%)	21mo	$340,000	$163	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-48,697
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-48,776
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55369

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,653 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$410 /mo · $4,923/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,633

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $99	+0% $16	+5% $-68	+10% $-151
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-89	+0% $16	+5% $121	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $91	base $16	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10414 Valley Forge Ln N Maple Grove, MN	4.0	2.0	2487	$3,300	$1.33	21d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-02-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-05
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-01-29
   status Active
4. 2026-01-23
   price $295,000
5. 2026-01-22
   historical Contingent - Inspection
6. 2026-01-15
   price $325,000
7. 2026-01-13
   price $339,900
8. 2026-01-05
   listed $360,000 Active
9. 1979-03-01
   soldstatus $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,923 · $410/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,923 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,923
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,547
• − Management: −$2,547
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$4,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,143
• After-tax cash flow: $1,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osseo Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2725200
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $76,168
• Composite: 42.35/100
• National rank: #3250
• State rank: #129 of 301 in MN

Livability — Maple Grove

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #1353

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maple Grove, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 77,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 39,290
• Household income: $112,144
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -313.16%
• Current HPI: 233.7627
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+372.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $295,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $325,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $339,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listed $360,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1979-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,923 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.