4300 Bay Point Rd #439 · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$269,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · Condo public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you've been searching for a lifestyle-driven community with exceptional amenities, this is your opportunity. Nestled within a gated, golf cart-friendly neighborhood, residents enjoy access to a full-service marina, a premier four-star golf course, and a vibrant calendar of social activities--all designed to elevate everyday living. This beautifully appointed second-floor condo features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering both comfort and privacy within the highly sought-after Bay Point Golf Villas. A versatile den provides the option to easily convert into a third bedroom, adding flexibility to suit your needs. Surrounded by serene, lush surroundings, the elevated location enhances the

Key facts

• Gated neighborhood
• Second floor condo
• Versatile den

Tags

• GATED NEIGHBORHOOD
• GOLF CART FRIENDLY
• FULL SERVICE MARINA
• FOUR STAR GOLF COURSE
• SECOND FLOOR CONDO
• VERSATILE DEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Community amenities: fishing, golf, marina, gated

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking and parking lot
• Security: Gated with guard; Twenty-four hour security
• Utilities: Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residential zoning; Stucco exterior
• Construction: Shingle roof; Stucco construction
• Exterior features: Private road frontage; Gated community with guard and 24-hour security; Fishing, golf, marina access in community; Short-term rentals allowed

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom on second level (approximately 13 x 12 ft); Primary bedroom on second level (approximately 16 x 12 ft)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Balcony

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $574 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $269k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patronis Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 648 students, 42% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $269k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.14%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-8,404
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $34,240
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,492/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $574

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,190

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $726	-5% $650	+0% $574	+5% $498	+10% $421
Rent	-10% $343	-5% $458	+0% $574	+5% $689	+10% $804
Rate	-1.0pp $709	-0.5pp $642	base $574	+0.5pp $504	+1.0pp $433

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4805 Stellata Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,250	$1.76	22d	1	0.50mi
2400 Grandiflora Blvd #606 Panama City, FL	3.0	3.0	1485	$2,500	$1.68	22d	1	0.64mi
4050 Marriott Dr Unit 1510830P Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1506	$6,212	$4.12	15d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $269,000 Active
3. 2021-12-14
   historical
4. 2021-12-14
   historical
5. 2021-12-09
   historical
6. 2021-12-09
   historical
7. 2020-05-29
   soldstatus $105,900
8. 2020-05-26
   soldstatus $105,900
9. 2019-10-14
   listed $105,900
10. 2014-09-16
    soldstatus $80,000
11. 2014-09-06
    listed $99,900
12. 2014-06-26
    listed $89,999
13. 2013-01-10
    listed $108,500
14. 2012-04-04
    listed $139,900
15. 2011-06-15
    soldstatus $100,000
16. 2011-06-10
    soldstatus $100,000
17. 2008-01-22
    listed $109,900
18. 2007-05-16
    soldstatus $175,000
19. 2007-05-14
    soldstatus $175,000
20. 2007-01-12
    listed $209,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,492 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,492 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$2,492
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,800
• − Management: −$2,800
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable income: $2,668
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$640
• After-tax cash flow: $6,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+28.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $269,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2020-05-29 Sold (MLS) $105,900 CPARMLS
• 2020-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $105,900 Public Records
• 2019-10-14 Listed $105,900 CPARMLS
• 2014-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-06 Listed $99,900 CPARMLS
• 2014-06-26 Listed $89,999 CPARMLS
• 2013-01-10 Listed $108,500 CPARMLS
• 2012-04-04 Listed $139,900 CPARMLS
• 2011-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2011-06-10 Sold (MLS) $100,000 CPARMLS
• 2008-01-22 Listed $109,900 CPARMLS
• 2007-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-14 Sold (MLS) $175,000 CPARMLS
• 2007-01-12 Listed $209,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,492 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.