2831 Custer Ave · Baldwin, PA 15227

$74,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,578 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1920 3,249 sqft lot $47/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the character and possibility in this solid brick 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, ready for your personal touch. Bursting with charm, the home features beautiful stained-glass windows that fill the space with warm, colorful light. Inside, you’ll find a spacious layout offering a comfortable living area and room to reimagine each space to your taste. The property includes a convenient 2-car garage, and while the home does need some work, its strong structure and classic details make it an excellent investment for those looking to restore and customize a truly unique property. Bring your vision and make this charming house your next project—and your future home.

Key facts

• Solid brick
• Strong structure
• Classic details

Tags

• SOLID BRICK
• STAINED-GLASS WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• STRONG STRUCTURE
• CLASSIC DETAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 3.5% in Baldwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#189 in PA, #1,596 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, commute F.
• Baldwin-Whitehall SD (suburban): math 34% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #246 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $75k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,956 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.14%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,629
• List price: $74,950
• Delta: -54.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Middle St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-0%)	2mo	$106,000	$67	81
746 Agnew Rd	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,485 (-6%)	2mo	$310,000	$209	66
245 Joseph St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-14%)	2mo	$230,000	$170	63
2945 Churchview Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-4%)	2mo	$125,000	$83	60
443 Middle St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,696 (+8%)	7mo	$263,500	$155	60
128 Carrick Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,660 (+5%)	9mo	$87,950	$53	57
2904 Brevard Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,597 (+1%)	12mo	$185,000	$116	56
1116 Marlane Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,346 (-15%)	7mo	$255,000	$189	48
3107 Churchview Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,782 (+13%)	5mo	$225,000	$126	43
2959 Churchview Ave	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (-12%)	10mo	$170,000	$122	38
2812 Brentwood Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+12%)	3mo	$194,500	$110	35
134 Poplargrove St	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,809 (+15%)	8mo	$210,000	$116	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $27,096
• Equity at exit: $11,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.86×
• Total profit: $80,914
• Equity at exit: $6,480

Cash invested: $20,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15227

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,271/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $882

Max offer price $74,950

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $622	-5% $601	+0% $580	+5% $558	+10% $537
Rent	-10% $452	-5% $516	+0% $580	+5% $643	+10% $707
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $599	base $580	+0.5pp $560	+1.0pp $540

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,738
• Closing costs: $2,248
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
616 Lane Way Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	1228	$1,690	$1.38	24d	1	0.35mi
616 Lane Way Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	1228	$1,690	$1.38	44d	1	0.35mi
1053 Edward Dr Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1163	$1,700	$1.46	24d	1	0.41mi
973 Agnew Rd Pittsburgh, PA	4.0	3.0	1532	$2,395	$1.56	8d	1	0.51mi
2769 Churchview Ave Unit 9 Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,095	$0.91	44d	1	0.63mi
2940 Brevard Ave Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.5	1176	$1,475	$1.25	44d	1	0.66mi
2721 Pyramid Ave Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1560	$1,550	$0.99	8d	1	0.67mi
2823 Clermont Ave Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1354	$1,490	$1.10	21d	1	0.77mi
2811 Brownsville Rd Unit 4 Brentwood, PA	2.0	1.0	1250	$995	$0.80	44d	1	0.78mi
3341 Recker Dr Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,750	$1.49	24d	1	0.99mi
3224 Bookman Ave Unit 1 Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	2.0	1207	$1,550	$1.28	44d	1	1.10mi
416 Jacobson Dr Brentwood, PA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,050	$0.91	24d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $74,950 Pending 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,950 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,950 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,950 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,950 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,950 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $74,950 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $74,950 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $74,950 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,950 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-05-06
    price $74,950 681-char remark

    Show marketing remark (681 chars)

    Discover the character and possibility in this solid brick 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, ready for your personal touch. Bursting with charm, the home features beautiful stained-glass windows that fill the space with warm, colorful light. Inside, you’ll find a spacious layout offering a comfortable living area and room to reimagine each space to your taste. The property includes a convenient 2-car garage, and while the home does need some work, its strong structure and classic details make it an excellent investment for those looking to restore and customize a truly unique property. Bring your vision and make this charming house your next project—and your future home.

12. 2026-04-07
    price $87,500 681-char remark

    Show marketing remark (681 chars)

    Discover the character and possibility in this solid brick 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, ready for your personal touch. Bursting with charm, the home features beautiful stained-glass windows that fill the space with warm, colorful light. Inside, you’ll find a spacious layout offering a comfortable living area and room to reimagine each space to your taste. The property includes a convenient 2-car garage, and while the home does need some work, its strong structure and classic details make it an excellent investment for those looking to restore and customize a truly unique property. Bring your vision and make this charming house your next project—and your future home.

13. 2026-03-30
    status Active 681-char remark

    Show marketing remark (681 chars)

    Discover the character and possibility in this solid brick 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, ready for your personal touch. Bursting with charm, the home features beautiful stained-glass windows that fill the space with warm, colorful light. Inside, you’ll find a spacious layout offering a comfortable living area and room to reimagine each space to your taste. The property includes a convenient 2-car garage, and while the home does need some work, its strong structure and classic details make it an excellent investment for those looking to restore and customize a truly unique property. Bring your vision and make this charming house your next project—and your future home.

14. 2026-02-27
    status Pending 681-char remark

    Show marketing remark (681 chars)

    Discover the character and possibility in this solid brick 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, ready for your personal touch. Bursting with charm, the home features beautiful stained-glass windows that fill the space with warm, colorful light. Inside, you’ll find a spacious layout offering a comfortable living area and room to reimagine each space to your taste. The property includes a convenient 2-car garage, and while the home does need some work, its strong structure and classic details make it an excellent investment for those looking to restore and customize a truly unique property. Bring your vision and make this charming house your next project—and your future home.

15. 2025-12-11
    price $94,900 681-char remark

    Show marketing remark (681 chars)

    Discover the character and possibility in this solid brick 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, ready for your personal touch. Bursting with charm, the home features beautiful stained-glass windows that fill the space with warm, colorful light. Inside, you’ll find a spacious layout offering a comfortable living area and room to reimagine each space to your taste. The property includes a convenient 2-car garage, and while the home does need some work, its strong structure and classic details make it an excellent investment for those looking to restore and customize a truly unique property. Bring your vision and make this charming house your next project—and your future home.

16. 2025-11-12
    listed $104,000 Active 681-char remark

    Show marketing remark (681 chars)

    Discover the character and possibility in this solid brick 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, ready for your personal touch. Bursting with charm, the home features beautiful stained-glass windows that fill the space with warm, colorful light. Inside, you’ll find a spacious layout offering a comfortable living area and room to reimagine each space to your taste. The property includes a convenient 2-car garage, and while the home does need some work, its strong structure and classic details make it an excellent investment for those looking to restore and customize a truly unique property. Bring your vision and make this charming house your next project—and your future home.

17. 1993-08-16
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,271 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,271 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,271
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$2,180
• Taxable income: $6,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,503
• After-tax cash flow: $5,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin-Whitehall SD
• NCES district ID: 4202970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $54,368
• Composite: 39.79/100
• National rank: #3880
• State rank: #246 of 539 in PA

Livability — Baldwin

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #189
• US rank: #1596

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baldwin, PA
• County: Allegheny County · 1,022,028 people
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $75,448
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Allegheny County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,250,282 people
• By 2030: 1,256,482 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 1,256,318 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 1,244,169 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 1,197,693 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 1,093,187 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 7% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · India, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegheny

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.7% · R 39.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.8pp toward D · 2008: 15.5pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+20.4 2016: D+16.4 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 243.6383
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+87.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $74,950 West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $87,500 West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — West Penn MLS
• 2026-02-27 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $94,900 West Penn MLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $104,000 West Penn MLS
• 1993-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,271 · +27.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.