155 E Rodeo Rd #45 · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · Manufactured · 251 Days on market

Built 2004 Est $157k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Meticulously maintained 2 bedroom/2 bathroom home in the desirable Rodeo Estates adult community. This home is 1204 sq. ft and comes fully furnished! This home has it all, including updated flooring, appliances, R/O system, plantation shutters, newer roof and HVAC. The gated Rodeo Estates community has a heated pool and spa, club house, shuffleboard, and other activities. This one won't last!

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• R/o system
• Newer roof

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• R/O SYSTEM
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER HVAC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessor listed lot and building area sources
• HOA & community: Land lease: $590 monthly; No association fees listed; Community pool; Community spa

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Steel frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Heated spa; Gravel/stone front and back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Built-in electric oven
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bath in primary bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.1% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.94%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,520
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2263 N Trekell Rd #81	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-0%)	13mo	$150,000	$125	62
2263 N Trekell Rd #159	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+2%)	10mo	$160,000	$130	61
2263 N Trekell Rd #175	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+2%)	11mo	$157,000	$127	60
155 E Rodeo Rd #80	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	22mo	$142,500	$106	58
2263 N Trekell Rd #30	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+2%)	20mo	$174,900	$142	54
2263 N Trekell Rd #20	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,288 (+7%)	10mo	$169,900	$132	54
2263 N Trekell Rd #142	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,288 (+7%)	23mo	$158,000	$123	44
2263 N Trekell Rd #44	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,288 (+7%)	23mo	$157,500	$122	44
2263 N Trekell Rd #113	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,349 (+12%)	12mo	$182,500	$135	43
2263 N Trekell Rd #131	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,350 (+12%)	18mo	$183,000	$136	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,840
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $30,850
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
700 E Rodeo Rd Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,436	$1.73	3d	25	0.51mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	24d	1	0.78mi
1139 E Yucca St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	3.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.00mi
2060 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	670	$1,300	$1.94	24d	4	1.14mi
1292 E Rodeo Rd Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	5d	1	1.19mi
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	24d	1	1.22mi
776 W Fairlane Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,200	$2.15	24d	1	1.23mi
1926 N Avenida de Palmas Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,199	$1.08	21d	3	1.25mi
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	24d	1	1.27mi
1936 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,492	$1.44	2d	29	1.28mi
803 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,725	$1.16	4d	1	1.41mi
290 W Viola St Unit 4 Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	15d	1	1.42mi
2356 N Sand Hills Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,995	$1.65	15d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,000 Active 251 DOM
2. 2026-01-07
   price $149,000
3. 2025-09-22
   listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$240
• After-tax cash flow: $3,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $149,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $159,000 ARMLS