3071 Huntersville Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$288,240

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,263 sqft · Land · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 $97/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Sherman Floor Plan - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner’s suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Evergreen Lifestyles Management; Annual association fee of $1,160

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Shingle (composition) roof
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding construction; New construction by Lennar Homes
• Exterior features: Fence with backyard fencing; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 13); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (10 x 11; 10 x 10; 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Primary bedroom has a bath; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (1.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,169 (1.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.60%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-31,076
• Equity at exit: $42,978

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-28,485
• Equity at exit: $24,922

Cash invested: $80,707 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,842 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,512
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,675/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,365

Max offer price $288,240

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $540	-5% $458	+0% $377	+5% $295	+10% $214
Rent	-10% $152	-5% $264	+0% $377	+5% $489	+10% $601
Rate	-1.0pp $522	-0.5pp $450	base $377	+0.5pp $302	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,060
• Closing costs: $8,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	14d	1	0.19mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	0.23mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	0.25mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	0.25mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	0.26mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	0.26mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	26d	1	0.27mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	26d	1	0.39mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	26d	1	0.45mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	26d	1	0.45mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	5d	1	0.51mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,599	$1.21	0d	1	0.55mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	45d	1	0.55mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	45d	1	0.58mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.60mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	0.62mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	18d	1	0.65mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	24d	1	0.68mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	17d	1	0.69mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	0.69mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	0.70mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	0.86mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	0.88mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	45d	1	0.89mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	14d	1	1.07mi
2654 Aruba Bend Dr Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1958	$3,015	$1.54	0d	50	1.33mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	0d	17	1.43mi
408 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,265	$1.43	0d	1	1.43mi
404 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,290	$1.38	0d	1	1.44mi
401 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,945	$1.23	5d	1	1.46mi
2845 Shimmer Edge Dr Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	2362	$2,400	$1.02	7d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $288,240 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $288,240 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $288,240 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $288,240 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $288,240 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $288,240 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-05-14
   price $309,940 387-char remark
8. 2026-05-13
   price $309,940 483-char remark
9. 2026-05-08
   price $315,040 387-char remark
10. 2026-05-07
    price $315,040 483-char remark
11. 2026-05-07
    listed $358,990 Active 483-char remark
12. 2026-05-05
    listed $309,990 Active 387-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,675 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,275 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,600/yr (+$300/mo · 214.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,146
• − Property taxes: −$1,675
• − Insurance: −$1,441
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,728
• − Management: −$2,728
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$8,385
• Taxable loss: −$167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40
• After-tax cash flow: $4,561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $288,240 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $293,540 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $299,640 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $299,640 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $309,940 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $315,040 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $358,990 HARMLS