13173 E Iron Chief Dr · Rincon Valley, AZ 85747

$333,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,465 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 2021 5,445 sqft lot $227/sqft · 10% below area Est $370k · 10% under $102/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained home in the highly desirable southeast Tucson corridor! Located in the award-winning Vail School District, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, function, and Arizona lifestyle. Step inside to an open and inviting floor plan designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and a seamless flow into the dining and living areas — creating the ideal hub of the home. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a well-appointed en-suite bath and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing household. Out back, enjoy Arizona living at its best with a low-maintenance yard with turf, pavers and rock.

Key facts

• 5,445 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $333k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Rincon Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#160 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ocotillo Ridge Elementary (math 79% / reading 77%, grade A, #19 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 652 students, 17% FRL); Old Vail Middle School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 798 students, 17% FRL); Mica Mountain High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #60 of 381 statewide, top 16%, 1,161 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 323 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($303k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,796 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.84%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,176
• List price: $333,000
• Delta: -10.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8042 S Golden Bell Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-6%)	2mo	$337,500	$244	76
13010 E Black Stilt Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-1%)	2mo	$349,940	$241	74
12876 E Curly Neal Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+1%)	2mo	$344,790	$234	66
7895 S Bonanza Park Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+14%)	2mo	$369,000	$221	65
7299 S Gray Jay Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,467 (+0%)	1mo	$349,350	$238	61
7292 S Gray Jay Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,467 (+0%)	1mo	$342,500	$233	60
13026 E Cembeline Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+14%)	2mo	$375,000	$225	60
13032 E Pine Siskin Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-12%)	1mo	$309,940	$242	58
13028 E Pine Siskin Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,631 (+11%)	1mo	$354,940	$218	54
13029 E Pine Siskin Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,631 (+11%)	2mo	$354,940	$218	53
7323 S Gray Jay Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,602 (+9%)	1mo	$370,840	$231	42
8302 S Stargilia Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+10%)	1mo	$358,790	$224	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-75,637
• Equity at exit: $49,651

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-113,396
• Equity at exit: $28,792

Cash invested: $93,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85747

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,608 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,746
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,528/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$102
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,887

Max offer price $294,002

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-127	+0% $-221	+5% $-315	+10% $-409
Rent	-10% $-427	-5% $-324	+0% $-221	+5% $-118	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-136	base $-221	+0.5pp $-307	+1.0pp $-395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,250
• Closing costs: $9,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13154 E Apex Mine Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1745	$3,200	$1.83	45d	1	0.09mi
8042 S Golden Bell Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,895	$1.37	45d	1	0.21mi
7720 S Rocking K Ranch Loop Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1202	$2,705	$2.25	3d	1	0.27mi
13142 E Cembeline Ln Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1859	$2,195	$1.18	5d	1	0.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $102 · $1,224/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $333,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $333,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $333,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $333,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $333,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $333,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $333,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $333,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $333,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $333,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $333,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $333,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $333,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $333,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $333,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $333,000 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    price $333,000 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained home in the highly desirable southeast Tucson corridor! Located in the award-winning Vail School District, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, function, and Arizona lifestyle. Step inside to an open and inviting floor plan designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and a seamless flow into the dining and living areas — creating the ideal hub of the home. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a well-appointed en-suite bath and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing household. Out back, enjoy Arizona living at its best with a low-maintenance yard with turf, pavers and rock.

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $338,000 Active 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained home in the highly desirable southeast Tucson corridor! Located in the award-winning Vail School District, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, function, and Arizona lifestyle. Step inside to an open and inviting floor plan designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and a seamless flow into the dining and living areas — creating the ideal hub of the home. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a well-appointed en-suite bath and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing household. Out back, enjoy Arizona living at its best with a low-maintenance yard with turf, pavers and rock.

19. 2026-02-26
    historical
20. 2026-02-25
    listed $338,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,528 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,528 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,653
• − Property taxes: −$3,528
• − Insurance: −$1,665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,504
• − Management: −$2,504
• − HOA: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$9,687
• Taxable loss: −$8,469
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,033
• After-tax cash flow: $-616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rincon Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #18098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rincon Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 27,753
• Household income: $110,816
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 197.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.04%
• Current HPI: 250.6404
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $333,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-05 Listed $338,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-25 Listed $338,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+70.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,528 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.