188 Robin St · Roseburg, OR 97470

$144,100

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 859 sqft · Other public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1958 0.95 ac lot $168/sqft · 47% below area Est $273k · 47% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Roseburg FIXER nearly 1 acre! Huge potential and a perfect flip, rental, or fix and make it home! Sitting on a huge .95 acre lot just a few minutes east of Roseburg, you'll enjoy the convenience, privacy, and amount of parking. Fix it or love it, schedule your sowing appointment today!

Key facts

• Nearby shopping
• Nearly 1 acre
• Nearby schools

Tags

• NEARLY 1 ACRE
• NEARBY SHOPPING
• NEARBY SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#152 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, employment D+.
• Glide SD 12 (rural): math 39% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #52 of 183 in OR (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 38 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $996 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $68k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,808 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.54%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,920
• List price: $144,100
• Delta: -47.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-18,189
• Equity at exit: $21,486

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-15,664
• Equity at exit: $12,459

Cash invested: $40,348 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97470

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$756
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,764/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $144,100

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,025
• Closing costs: $4,323
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Roseburg FIXER nearly 1 acre! Huge potential and a perfect flip, rental, or fix and make it home! Sitting on a huge .95 acre lot just a few minutes east of Roseburg, you'll enjoy the convenience, privacy, and amount of parking. Fix it or love it, schedule your sowing appointment today!

2. 2026-04-17
   status Active 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Roseburg FIXER nearly 1 acre! Huge potential and a perfect flip, rental, or fix and make it home! Sitting on a huge .95 acre lot just a few minutes east of Roseburg, you'll enjoy the convenience, privacy, and amount of parking. Fix it or love it, schedule your sowing appointment today!

3. 2026-04-08
   status Active 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Roseburg FIXER nearly 1 acre! Huge potential and a perfect flip, rental, or fix and make it home! Sitting on a huge .95 acre lot just a few minutes east of Roseburg, you'll enjoy the convenience, privacy, and amount of parking. Fix it or love it, schedule your sowing appointment today!

4. 2026-02-17
   status Pending 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Roseburg FIXER nearly 1 acre! Huge potential and a perfect flip, rental, or fix and make it home! Sitting on a huge .95 acre lot just a few minutes east of Roseburg, you'll enjoy the convenience, privacy, and amount of parking. Fix it or love it, schedule your sowing appointment today!

5. 2026-01-08
   price $165,300 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Roseburg FIXER nearly 1 acre! Huge potential and a perfect flip, rental, or fix and make it home! Sitting on a huge .95 acre lot just a few minutes east of Roseburg, you'll enjoy the convenience, privacy, and amount of parking. Fix it or love it, schedule your sowing appointment today!

6. 2025-12-11
   price $186,560 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Roseburg FIXER nearly 1 acre! Huge potential and a perfect flip, rental, or fix and make it home! Sitting on a huge .95 acre lot just a few minutes east of Roseburg, you'll enjoy the convenience, privacy, and amount of parking. Fix it or love it, schedule your sowing appointment today!

7. 2025-10-24
   listed $212,000 Active 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Roseburg FIXER nearly 1 acre! Huge potential and a perfect flip, rental, or fix and make it home! Sitting on a huge .95 acre lot just a few minutes east of Roseburg, you'll enjoy the convenience, privacy, and amount of parking. Fix it or love it, schedule your sowing appointment today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,764 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,764 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,072
• − Property taxes: −$1,764
• − Insurance: −$720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − Depreciation: −$4,192
• Taxable loss: −$945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$227
• After-tax cash flow: $1,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glide SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4105670
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,115
• Composite: 42.91/100
• National rank: #6703
• State rank: #52 of 183 in OR

Livability — Roseburg

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #152
• US rank: #8873

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Douglas County · 52,045 people
• City population: 52,045
• Metro: Roseburg, OR
• Population (ZIP): 19,711
• Household income: $54,751
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 763.0

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.83%
• Current HPI: 330.6119
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.21%
• Metro: Roseburg, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-22.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-02-17 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $165,300 RMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $186,560 RMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $212,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,764 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.