2928 Nepal Dr · Tallahassee, FL 32303

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1979 6,098 sqft lot Est $209k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FSBO. Entered for comp purposes.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private pool
• Convenient access

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE POOL
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with one space
• Home design: Single-story home
• Pool and Spa: Private in-ground pool
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (8x10); Bedroom 3 (9x10); Bedroom 4 (10x12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Split bedrooms; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $111k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $163k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.44%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,000
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4008 Cornish Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,238 (+12%)	6mo	$239,000	$193	61
2917 Stokley Ln	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	988 (-10%)	12mo	$162,000	$164	56
2034 Harriet Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (+8%)	7mo	$215,000	$180	54
3823 Bell Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-6%)	9mo	$205,000	$197	52
2112 Harriet Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,112 (+1%)	19mo	$212,000	$191	50
2136 Harriet Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,092 (-1%)	16mo	$233,000	$213	48
3838 Bell Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	960 (-13%)	6mo	$115,000	$120	45
3839 Wiggington Rd	0.41mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,244 (+13%)	9mo	$184,000	$148	45
3834 Bell Rd	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	976 (-11%)	11mo	$182,500	$187	42
2610 Rippee Rd	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	20mo	$217,500	$206	39
1933 Longview Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,183 (+8%)	21mo	$225,000	$190	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,459
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,603
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32303

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,948/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,708

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3380 Fred George Rd Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,700	$1.90	13d	9	0.85mi
3400 Old Bainbridge Rd #203 Tallahassee, FL	3.0	3.0	1368	$1,650	$1.21	21d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $195,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-05-20
   price $195,000
5. 2026-05-18
   status Active
6. 2026-03-09
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-02-20
   listed $306,000 Active
8. 2019-07-30
   soldstatus $163,000 32-char remark

   Show marketing remark (32 chars)

   FSBO. Entered for comp purposes.

9. 2019-07-30
   soldstatus $163,000

   Show marketing remark (32 chars)

   FSBO. Entered for comp purposes.

10. 2019-06-25
    listed $163,000 32-char remark

    Show marketing remark (32 chars)

    FSBO. Entered for comp purposes.

11. 2006-08-02
    soldstatus $146,500
12. 2006-07-27
    soldstatus $142,000
13. 2006-04-15
    listed $149,000
14. 2003-06-27
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,948 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,948 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,948
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,885
• − Management: −$1,885
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$173
• After-tax cash flow: $2,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,785
• Household income: $62,275
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2919.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -255.24%
• Current HPI: 241.3131
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+95.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $195,000 CATRS
• 2026-05-18 Relisted — CATRS
• 2026-03-09 Contingent — CATRS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $306,000 CATRS
• 2019-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-30 Sold (MLS) $163,000 CATRS
• 2019-06-25 Listed $163,000 CATRS
• 2006-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $146,500 Public Records
• 2006-07-27 Sold (MLS) $142,000 CATRS
• 2006-04-15 Listed $149,000 CATRS
• 2003-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,948 · +3472.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.