1564 State Highway 8 · Gilbertsville, NY 13809

$54,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1954 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Waterfront, 3-Season Cabin on the Unadilla River. Resurrected and Reimagined in 2015. Major improvements include a metal roof, updated plumbing with hot and cold water, upgraded electrical panel, wiring, lighting, and newer kitchen appliances. Enjoy a dip in the river and then rinse off using the outdoor showers. Open layout, studio cabin with one full bathroom. Magnificent views from the deck, and from inside, out the wall to wall windows. All you see is what you get. Sold fully equipped and furnished, in “as is” condition. Not insulated. Heated by wood stove and portable radiator. Please note: there is no well, The seller currently harvests rainwater using two 275-gallon holding containers, one equipped with a filter system. The septic is unknown. Foundation piers lie in flood plain, house rests above high water mark. Foundation piers require regular maintenance. A rare opportunity to disconnect from the noise, slow down, and reconnect with nature in a truly private waterfront setting.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Harvests rainwater
• Outdoor showers

Tags

• WATERFRONT
• METAL ROOF
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• UPGRADED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• OUTDOOR SHOWERS
• HARVESTS RAINWATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($870 rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#892 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime D-.
• Gilbertsville-Mount Upton Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #666 of 755 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($373 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $54k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $52,380 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.14%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $51,187
• Equity at exit: $48,647

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.84×
• Total profit: $133,602
• Equity at exit: $104,910

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13809

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $438

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $373	-5% $357	+0% $342	+5% $327	+10% $311
Rent	-10% $273	-5% $308	+0% $342	+5% $376	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $356	base $342	+0.5pp $328	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $54,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $54,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $59,000 Active 1015-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1015 chars)

    Waterfront, 3-Season Cabin on the Unadilla River. Resurrected and Reimagined in 2015. Major improvements include a metal roof, updated plumbing with hot and cold water, upgraded electrical panel, wiring, lighting, and newer kitchen appliances. Enjoy a dip in the river and then rinse off using the outdoor showers. Open layout, studio cabin with one full bathroom. Magnificent views from the deck, and from inside, out the wall to wall windows. All you see is what you get. Sold fully equipped and furnished, in “as is” condition. Not insulated. Heated by wood stove and portable radiator. Please note: there is no well, The seller currently harvests rainwater using two 275-gallon holding containers, one equipped with a filter system. The septic is unknown. Foundation piers lie in flood plain, house rests above high water mark. Foundation piers require regular maintenance. A rare opportunity to disconnect from the noise, slow down, and reconnect with nature in a truly private waterfront setting.

17. 1993-09-27
    soldstatus $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $480 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $696 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$216/yr (+$18/mo · 45.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$836
• − Management: −$836
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $3,429
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$823
• After-tax cash flow: $3,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbertsville-Mount Upton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604757
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $48,974
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10004
• State rank: #666 of 755 in NY

Livability — Gilbertsville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #892
• US rank: #17305

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,688

Population outlook (Chenango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,669 people
• By 2030: 43,484 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 38,774 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 34,000 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,637 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 16,452 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Chenango

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 36.4% · R 63.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+23.3 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.07%
• Current HPI: 274.4556
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+69.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $59,000 UNYREIS
• 1993-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $480 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.