1114 Colts Cir Unit B · Lawrence, NJ 08648

$188,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 790 sqft · Condo · 136 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 2006 Fair condition $238/sqft · 15% below area Est $221k · 15% under $600/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1 bed condo is on the first floor in the meticulously maintained 55+ community at Carriage Park. With its prime location in Lawrenceville, 1114 Colts Circle, offers an unbeatable combination of comfort, convenience and value! The living room/dining room hardwood floors complement the brand-new neutral carpeting in the bedroom. Personal 6X8 storage offered in basement. Assigned parking with visitor- marked parking spots. Dazzling 7100 square foot clubhouse with gathering room, library, TV, fireplace, card room, fitness center, billiards, catering kitchen and a heated outdoor pool. The HOA includes water and sewer.

Key facts

• Visitor parking
• Personal storage
• Clubhouse

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR
• PRIME LOCATION
• PERSONAL STORAGE
• ASSIGNED PARKING
• VISITOR PARKING
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $188k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (12.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $188k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lawrence Township Public School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #217 of 472 in NJ (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ben Franklin Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 335 students, 13% FRL); Lawrence Intermediate School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #259 of 431 statewide, top 61%, 797 students, 29% FRL); Lawrence High School (math 26% / reading 63%, grade F, #149 of 399 statewide, top 40%, 1,207 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,580 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.69%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,724
• List price: $188,000
• Delta: -14.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1328 Colts Cir Unit B	0.04mi	1/1.0	790 (0%)	15mo	$215,000	$272	86
1204 Colts Cir	0.01mi	1/1.0	790 (0%)	27mo	$207,000	$262	79
1316 Colts Cir	0.03mi	1/1.0	736 (-7%)	14mo	$220,000	$299	75
1216 Colts Cir	0.05mi	1/1.0	736 (-7%)	21mo	$101,466	$138	69
1316 Colts Cir Unit K	0.05mi	1/1.0	736 (-7%)	29mo	$209,000	$284	66
130 Graf Ave	1.33mi	2/1.0 (+1)	792 (+0%)	36mo	$310,000	$391	40
848 Bunker Hill Ave	1.13mi	2/1.0 (+1)	840 (+6%)	27mo	$290,000	$345	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-46,815
• Equity at exit: $28,031

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-77,314
• Equity at exit: $16,255

Cash invested: $52,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08648

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,199 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$235 /mo · $2,820/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$600
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,404

Max offer price $164,580

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-97	+0% $-162	+5% $-227	+10% $-292
Rent	-10% $-336	-5% $-249	+0% $-162	+5% $-75	+10% $12
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-114	base $-162	+0.5pp $-211	+1.0pp $-260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,000
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2000 Colts Cir #2202 Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	70d	1	0.11mi
161 Franklin Corner Rd Lawrence Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	760	$1,758	$2.31	70d	4	0.63mi
180 Franklin Corner Rd Lawrenceville, NJ	1.0	1.0	660	$1,706	$2.58	63d	4	0.78mi
515 Dakota Dr Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	725	$2,195	$3.03	70d	1	0.93mi
900 Grand Central Dr Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1401	$2,350	$1.68	63d	31	0.99mi
1600 White Pine Cir Lawrenceville, NJ	1.0	1.0	920	$1,880	$2.04	70d	3	1.18mi
2140 Princeton Pike Lawrenceville, NJ	2.0	1.0	952	$2,700	$2.84	70d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail $600/mo · $7,200/yr condo

• Likely covers: watersewerpoolgymparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $188,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $188,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $188,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $188,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $188,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $188,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $188,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $188,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $188,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $188,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $188,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $188,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $188,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $188,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $188,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $188,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $188,000 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $188,000 Active 111 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $188,000 Active 110 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $188,000 Active 109 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $188,000 Active 108 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $188,000 Active 107 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $188,000 Active 106 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $188,000 Active 105 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $188,000 Active 104 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $188,000 Active 103 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $188,000 Active 102 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $188,000 Active 101 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $188,000 Active 100 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $188,000 Active 99 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $188,000 Active 98 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $188,000 Active 97 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $188,000 Active 96 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $188,000 Active 95 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $188,000 Active 94 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $188,000 Active 93 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $188,000 Active 91 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $188,000 Active 89 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $188,000 Active 88 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $188,000 Active 85 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $188,000 Active 84 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $188,000 Active 83 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $188,000 Active 82 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $188,000 Active 80 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $188,000 Active 79 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $188,000 Active 77 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $188,000 Active 76 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $188,000 Active 75 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $188,000 Active 74 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $188,000 Active 71 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,531
• − Property taxes: −$2,820
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,111
• − Management: −$2,111
• − HOA: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable loss: −$4,792
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,150
• After-tax cash flow: $-792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,950–$11,850 screening

This 1-bedroom condo in a well-maintained 55+ community offers a good starting point for a cosmetic renovation. Fresh paint and updated cabinets can significantly enhance its appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures
• Minor interior paint — some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in a home's appeal ↑
• Resale update kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets can enhance the kitchen's appearance ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ben Franklin Elementary F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Lawrence Middle School F NJ #182/431 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Lawrence High School F NJ #149/399 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3408400
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $89,210
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4661
• State rank: #217 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lawrence

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer County · 381,395 people
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,323
• Household income: $125,514
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Black 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.66%
• Current HPI: 260.9615
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.01%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+34.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $188,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-07 Rental Removed $2,000 BRIGHTMLS
• 2024-11-03 Price Changed $2,000 BRIGHTMLS
• 2024-10-17 Listed for Rent $2,200 BRIGHTMLS
• 2019-06-03 Sold (MLS) $138,888 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-01 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-19 Listed $139,999 BRIGHT MLS