298 Honey Farm Ln · Shenandoah Farms, VA 22630

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 184 Days on market

Built 1980 0.56 ac lot $126/sqft · 54% below area $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential of this spacious residential property, offering a generous 0.56-acre lot in a serene setting. Built in 1980, it presents a opportunity to create a personalized living space tailored to your lifestyle. The expansive lot provides ample room for outdoor activities, gardening, or even future expansions. Located in a peaceful area, this property offers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Enjoy the freedom of customizing your living environment while being close to local amenities and attractions. This is not just a property; it’s an opportunity to invest in your future. Don’t miss out on the chance to make this space your own!

Key facts

• 0.56-acre lot
• Local amenities
• 0.56 acre lot

Tags

• 0.56-ACRE LOT
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.8% in Shenandoah Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#440 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $101k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $427,978
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -53.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
0 Fern Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-5%)	2mo	$475,000	$317	78
38 Old Oak Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-2%)	5mo	$430,000	$276	74
88 Kits Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-5%)	1mo	$435,900	$291	67
545 Goode Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,466 (-7%)	6mo	$420,000	$286	66
241 Old Oak Ln	0.45mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (0%)	14mo	$341,000	$215	62
199 Pine Ridge Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-5%)	8mo	$429,000	$286	61
31 Old Oak Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (-13%)	5mo	$360,000	$261	56
605 Western Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-5%)	1mo	$445,000	$297	51
1674 Western Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-5%)	19mo	$406,000	$271	48
525 Drummer Hill Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-12%)	22mo	$464,000	$331	48
579 Joans Quadrangle Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-10%)	1mo	$552,577	$389	43
779 Western Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,396 (-12%)	10mo	$379,000	$271	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,113
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $49,568
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,861 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,642/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,636

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
316 Judy Ln Front Royal, VA	3.0	3.0	1255	$2,100	$1.67	43d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-27
   price $199,000 682-char remark

   Show marketing remark (682 chars)

   Discover the potential of this spacious residential property, offering a generous 0.56-acre lot in a serene setting. Built in 1980, it presents a opportunity to create a personalized living space tailored to your lifestyle. The expansive lot provides ample room for outdoor activities, gardening, or even future expansions. Located in a peaceful area, this property offers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Enjoy the freedom of customizing your living environment while being close to local amenities and attractions. This is not just a property; it’s an opportunity to invest in your future. Don’t miss out on the chance to make this space your own!

2. 2026-03-27
   status Active 682-char remark

   Show marketing remark (682 chars)

   Discover the potential of this spacious residential property, offering a generous 0.56-acre lot in a serene setting. Built in 1980, it presents a opportunity to create a personalized living space tailored to your lifestyle. The expansive lot provides ample room for outdoor activities, gardening, or even future expansions. Located in a peaceful area, this property offers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Enjoy the freedom of customizing your living environment while being close to local amenities and attractions. This is not just a property; it’s an opportunity to invest in your future. Don’t miss out on the chance to make this space your own!

3. 2026-02-27
   status Pending 682-char remark

   Show marketing remark (682 chars)

   Discover the potential of this spacious residential property, offering a generous 0.56-acre lot in a serene setting. Built in 1980, it presents a opportunity to create a personalized living space tailored to your lifestyle. The expansive lot provides ample room for outdoor activities, gardening, or even future expansions. Located in a peaceful area, this property offers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Enjoy the freedom of customizing your living environment while being close to local amenities and attractions. This is not just a property; it’s an opportunity to invest in your future. Don’t miss out on the chance to make this space your own!

4. 2026-01-16
   price $249,900 682-char remark

   Show marketing remark (682 chars)

   Discover the potential of this spacious residential property, offering a generous 0.56-acre lot in a serene setting. Built in 1980, it presents a opportunity to create a personalized living space tailored to your lifestyle. The expansive lot provides ample room for outdoor activities, gardening, or even future expansions. Located in a peaceful area, this property offers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Enjoy the freedom of customizing your living environment while being close to local amenities and attractions. This is not just a property; it’s an opportunity to invest in your future. Don’t miss out on the chance to make this space your own!

5. 2025-12-04
   price $274,900 682-char remark

   Show marketing remark (682 chars)

   Discover the potential of this spacious residential property, offering a generous 0.56-acre lot in a serene setting. Built in 1980, it presents a opportunity to create a personalized living space tailored to your lifestyle. The expansive lot provides ample room for outdoor activities, gardening, or even future expansions. Located in a peaceful area, this property offers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Enjoy the freedom of customizing your living environment while being close to local amenities and attractions. This is not just a property; it’s an opportunity to invest in your future. Don’t miss out on the chance to make this space your own!

6. 2025-10-28
   listed $299,900 Active 682-char remark

   Show marketing remark (682 chars)

   Discover the potential of this spacious residential property, offering a generous 0.56-acre lot in a serene setting. Built in 1980, it presents a opportunity to create a personalized living space tailored to your lifestyle. The expansive lot provides ample room for outdoor activities, gardening, or even future expansions. Located in a peaceful area, this property offers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility. Enjoy the freedom of customizing your living environment while being close to local amenities and attractions. This is not just a property; it’s an opportunity to invest in your future. Don’t miss out on the chance to make this space your own!

7. 2025-07-30
   soldstatus $238,850

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,642 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,642 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,642
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,786
• − Management: −$1,786
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,164
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$279
• After-tax cash flow: $2,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah Farms

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #440
• US rank: #18845

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah Farms, VA
• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $274,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $238,850 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,642 · +26.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.