569 E Capps Rd · Livingston, TX 77351

$199,898

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 2012 1.68 ac lot $85/sqft · at area comps Est $200k · at est. ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Livingston Area, this beautifully maintained home features 3 Bedrooms 3 full baths and a dedicated study. The living, dinning, and kitchen flow seamlessly in an open concept layout creating a spacious and inviting atmosphere. Built with care and love by the seller, this home offers a warm and welcoming fell from the moment you step inside- perfect of large families and entertaining guests. Make an appointment you won't be disappointed. Selling AS IS does need finishing work and cosmetic work . Home it’s service by Well and Septic .SELLER NEGOTIABLE MAKE AN OFFER

Key facts

• 1.68 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2012

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.9% in Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,113 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timber Creek El (math 56% / reading 47%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 522 students, 74% FRL); Livingston J H (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 893 students, 62% FRL); Livingston H S (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,128 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1202 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,390 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,898
• List price: $199,898
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
771 Taras Path	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,160 (-8%)	16mo	$375,000	$174	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-41,149
• Equity at exit: $29,805

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-47,154
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,971 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1202
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,494 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,230/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,668

Max offer price $175,657

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-81	+0% $-137	+5% $-194	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $-255	-5% $-196	+0% $-137	+5% $-78	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-86	base $-137	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,974
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   Located in the Livingston Area, this beautifully maintained home features 3 Bedrooms 3 full baths and a dedicated study. The living, dinning, and kitchen flow seamlessly in an open concept layout creating a spacious and inviting atmosphere. Built with care and love by the seller, this home offers a warm and welcoming fell from the moment you step inside- perfect of large families and entertaining guests. Make an appointment you won't be disappointed. Selling AS IS does need finishing work and cosmetic work . Home it’s service by Well and Septic .SELLER NEGOTIABLE MAKE AN OFFER

2. 2026-04-22
   price $199,898 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   Located in the Livingston Area, this beautifully maintained home features 3 Bedrooms 3 full baths and a dedicated study. The living, dinning, and kitchen flow seamlessly in an open concept layout creating a spacious and inviting atmosphere. Built with care and love by the seller, this home offers a warm and welcoming fell from the moment you step inside- perfect of large families and entertaining guests. Make an appointment you won't be disappointed. Selling AS IS does need finishing work and cosmetic work . Home it’s service by Well and Septic .SELLER NEGOTIABLE MAKE AN OFFER

3. 2026-03-26
   price $199,899 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   Located in the Livingston Area, this beautifully maintained home features 3 Bedrooms 3 full baths and a dedicated study. The living, dinning, and kitchen flow seamlessly in an open concept layout creating a spacious and inviting atmosphere. Built with care and love by the seller, this home offers a warm and welcoming fell from the moment you step inside- perfect of large families and entertaining guests. Make an appointment you won't be disappointed. Selling AS IS does need finishing work and cosmetic work . Home it’s service by Well and Septic .SELLER NEGOTIABLE MAKE AN OFFER

4. 2026-02-22
   price $199,999 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   Located in the Livingston Area, this beautifully maintained home features 3 Bedrooms 3 full baths and a dedicated study. The living, dinning, and kitchen flow seamlessly in an open concept layout creating a spacious and inviting atmosphere. Built with care and love by the seller, this home offers a warm and welcoming fell from the moment you step inside- perfect of large families and entertaining guests. Make an appointment you won't be disappointed. Selling AS IS does need finishing work and cosmetic work . Home it’s service by Well and Septic .SELLER NEGOTIABLE MAKE AN OFFER

5. 2026-02-12
   price $228,990 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   Located in the Livingston Area, this beautifully maintained home features 3 Bedrooms 3 full baths and a dedicated study. The living, dinning, and kitchen flow seamlessly in an open concept layout creating a spacious and inviting atmosphere. Built with care and love by the seller, this home offers a warm and welcoming fell from the moment you step inside- perfect of large families and entertaining guests. Make an appointment you won't be disappointed. Selling AS IS does need finishing work and cosmetic work . Home it’s service by Well and Septic .SELLER NEGOTIABLE MAKE AN OFFER

6. 2025-12-28
   listed $229,900 Active 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   Located in the Livingston Area, this beautifully maintained home features 3 Bedrooms 3 full baths and a dedicated study. The living, dinning, and kitchen flow seamlessly in an open concept layout creating a spacious and inviting atmosphere. Built with care and love by the seller, this home offers a warm and welcoming fell from the moment you step inside- perfect of large families and entertaining guests. Make an appointment you won't be disappointed. Selling AS IS does need finishing work and cosmetic work . Home it’s service by Well and Septic .SELLER NEGOTIABLE MAKE AN OFFER

7. 2006-05-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,428/yr (+$119/mo · 64.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,197
• − Property taxes: −$2,230
• − Insurance: −$999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,244
• After-tax cash flow: $-403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — Livingston

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1113
• US rank: #19723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• City population: 37,143
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $199,898 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $199,899 HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $228,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-28 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2006-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+38.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,230 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.