254 Lockwood St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 326 Days on market

Built 1929 6,970 sqft lot Est $81k · 22% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Landlords/Investors, enjoy the guaranteed rental payments with this Section 8 rental property. This 3-bedroom property has undergone many recent updates. Section 8 pays $1150 directly to the owner. Do Not Disturb tenants! Serious buyers only!

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Built 1929
• Listed 325 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.16 acres (55 x 125)

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $99k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
278 Wylie St	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,411 (+4%)	4mo	$148,000	$105	85
266 Lockwood St	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+6%)	3mo	$150,000	$104	83
251 Trier St	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,262 (-7%)	2mo	$147,000	$116	81
1424 Acacia St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,416 (+4%)	3mo	$66,500	$47	76
1016 Thurman St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-9%)	3mo	$69,900	$57	72
2844 Schemm St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,336 (-2%)	3mo	$40,000	$30	71
267 Lockwood St	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,553 (+14%)	2mo	$116,000	$75	71
1407 Bay St	0.36mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,464 (+8%)	2mo	$142,900	$98	61
1811 Allegan St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,316 (-3%)	3mo	$70,000	$53	59
407 S Oakley St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,495 (+10%)	4mo	$58,000	$39	54
719 S Bond St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,191 (-12%)	0mo	$52,500	$44	49
1954 Harry St	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,505 (+11%)	2mo	$90,000	$60	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-7,526
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $8,086
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,076/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,034

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4156 Ann St Saginaw, MI	4.0	1.5	1387	$1,225	$0.88	43d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 326 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 325 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 324 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 323 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 322 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 320 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 319 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 316 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 315 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 314 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 311 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 310 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 309 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 308 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 307 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 306 DOM
17. 2025-07-28
    listed $99,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Landlords/Investors, enjoy the guaranteed rental payments with this Section 8 rental property. This 3-bedroom property has undergone many recent updates. Section 8 pays $1150 directly to the owner. Do Not Disturb tenants! Serious buyers only!

18. 2025-07-28
    listed $99,000 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Landlords/Investors, enjoy the guaranteed rental payments with this Section 8 rental property. This 3-bedroom property has undergone many recent updates. Section 8 pays $1150 directly to the owner. Do Not Disturb tenants! Serious buyers only!

19. 2021-12-02
    soldstatus $35,000 Sold 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Package deal of properties 8 properties. Rental property

20. 2021-12-02
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Package deal of properties 8 properties. Rental property

21. 2021-12-02
    soldstatus $280,000

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Package deal of properties 8 properties. Rental property

22. 2021-12-01
    historical 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Package deal of properties 8 properties. Rental property

23. 2021-12-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Package deal of properties 8 properties. Rental property

24. 2021-11-30
    listed $35,000 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Package deal of properties 8 properties. Rental property

25. 2021-11-30
    listed $35,000

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Package deal of properties 8 properties. Rental property

26. 2012-06-29
    soldstatus $40,000
27. 2012-06-29
    soldstatus $40,000
28. 2012-06-27
    historical
29. 2010-04-19
    listed $45,000
30. 2010-04-19
    listed $45,000
31. 2009-03-09
    historical
32. 2009-03-09
    historical
33. 2008-01-02
    listed $89,900
34. 2008-01-02
    listed $89,900
35. 2007-11-18
    historical
36. 2007-11-18
    historical
37. 2007-05-18
    listed $99,900
38. 2007-05-18
    listed $99,900
39. 2007-05-07
    historical
40. 2007-05-07
    historical
41. 2006-06-01
    listed $109,900
42. 2006-06-01
    listed $109,900
43. 2003-08-15
    soldstatus $112,900
44. 2003-06-27
    soldstatus $112,900
45. 2003-06-27
    soldstatus $112,900
46. 2003-05-19
    historical
47. 2003-05-02
    listed $114,900
48. 2003-05-02
    listed $114,900
49. 2000-05-26
    soldstatus $102,900
50. 2000-05-19
    soldstatus $102,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,076 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,076 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$3,076
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,131
• − Management: −$1,131
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$30
• After-tax cash flow: $1,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-28 Listed $99,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-28 Listed $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-02 Sold (MLS) $35,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-02 Sold (MLS) $35,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-12-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2021-11-30 Listed $35,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-30 Listed $35,000 REALCOMP
• 2012-06-29 Sold (MLS) $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2012-06-29 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-06-27 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-04-19 Listed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-04-19 Listed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-03-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-03-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-01-02 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-01-02 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-11-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-11-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-05-18 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-05-18 Listed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-05-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-05-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-06-01 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-06-01 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $112,900 Public Records
• 2003-06-27 Sold (MLS) $112,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-06-27 Sold (MLS) $112,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-05-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-05-02 Listed $114,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-05-02 Listed $114,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $102,900 Public Records
• 2000-05-19 Sold (MLS) $102,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-04-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-03-13 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,076 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.