1072 Creekside Dr · Angola on the Lake, NY 14047

$27,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily · 180 Days on market

Built 1973 $36/sqft · 5% above area Est $26k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready, nicely remodeled 2 bedroom, large front living room, entry coat closet. Galley style kitchen with appliances, open shelf pantry. New carpeting in living room and bedrooms. Rear bedroom has large built in dresser. Spacious bath with large vanity, tub/shower, stackable washer/dryer. Some vinyl windows. Florida room. New skirting, storage shed included. Located in well maintained community, 1 pet allowed per home. Star tax credit eligible.

Key facts

• Florida room
• Open shelf pantry
• New skirting

Tags

• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• OPEN SHELF PANTRY
• BUILT IN DRESSER
• FLORIDA ROOM
• NEW SKIRTING
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,000 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Evans-Brant Central School District (Lake Shore) (suburban): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #424 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $193 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $837 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $28k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $24,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.73%
• DSCR: 6.24
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $26,500
• List price: $27,900
• Delta: 5.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $44,309
• Equity at exit: $4,160

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.99×
• Total profit: $101,511
• Equity at exit: $2,412

Cash invested: $7,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14047

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$146
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$35 /mo · $418/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $244

Max offer price $27,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $786	-5% $776	+0% $766	+5% $757	+10% $747
Rent	-10% $670	-5% $718	+0% $766	+5% $814	+10% $862
Rate	-1.0pp $780	-0.5pp $773	base $766	+0.5pp $759	+1.0pp $752

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,975
• Closing costs: $837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $27,900 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $27,900 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $27,900 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $27,900 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $27,900 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,900 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,900 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $29,900 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 161 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 160 DOM
17. 2025-12-22
    listed $29,900 Active 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Move in ready, nicely remodeled 2 bedroom, large front living room, entry coat closet. Galley style kitchen with appliances, open shelf pantry. New carpeting in living room and bedrooms. Rear bedroom has large built in dresser. Spacious bath with large vanity, tub/shower, stackable washer/dryer. Some vinyl windows. Florida room. New skirting, storage shed included. Located in well maintained community, 1 pet allowed per home. Star tax credit eligible.

18. 2016-07-22
    soldstatus $13,000 Closed Sale or Rented 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Move in ready. Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bath home. Large living room, coat closet, some custom made blinds in the living room. Wall to wall carpet and vinyl . Some vinyl windows. Rear bedroom has a large built in dresser. Bath has tub and shower, large vanity and linen storage, washer included. Newer furnace and hot water tank. Enclosed Florida room with a garage door in front. 8 x 10 shed located in a well maintained community. Close to shopping, dining, and bus line. Star tax credit eligible .

19. 2016-05-10
    status Pending Sale 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Move in ready. Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bath home. Large living room, coat closet, some custom made blinds in the living room. Wall to wall carpet and vinyl . Some vinyl windows. Rear bedroom has a large built in dresser. Bath has tub and shower, large vanity and linen storage, washer included. Newer furnace and hot water tank. Enclosed Florida room with a garage door in front. 8 x 10 shed located in a well maintained community. Close to shopping, dining, and bus line. Star tax credit eligible .

20. 2016-03-18
    price $13,900 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Move in ready. Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bath home. Large living room, coat closet, some custom made blinds in the living room. Wall to wall carpet and vinyl . Some vinyl windows. Rear bedroom has a large built in dresser. Bath has tub and shower, large vanity and linen storage, washer included. Newer furnace and hot water tank. Enclosed Florida room with a garage door in front. 8 x 10 shed located in a well maintained community. Close to shopping, dining, and bus line. Star tax credit eligible .

21. 2015-12-04
    price $15,000 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Move in ready. Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bath home. Large living room, coat closet, some custom made blinds in the living room. Wall to wall carpet and vinyl . Some vinyl windows. Rear bedroom has a large built in dresser. Bath has tub and shower, large vanity and linen storage, washer included. Newer furnace and hot water tank. Enclosed Florida room with a garage door in front. 8 x 10 shed located in a well maintained community. Close to shopping, dining, and bus line. Star tax credit eligible .

22. 2015-11-07
    listed $16,900 Active 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Move in ready. Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bath home. Large living room, coat closet, some custom made blinds in the living room. Wall to wall carpet and vinyl . Some vinyl windows. Rear bedroom has a large built in dresser. Bath has tub and shower, large vanity and linen storage, washer included. Newer furnace and hot water tank. Enclosed Florida room with a garage door in front. 8 x 10 shed located in a well maintained community. Close to shopping, dining, and bus line. Star tax credit eligible .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,563
• − Property taxes: −$418
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − Depreciation: −$812
• Taxable income: $9,306
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,234
• After-tax cash flow: $6,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evans-Brant Central School District (Lake Shore)
• NCES district ID: 3616560
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,433
• Composite: 40.89/100
• National rank: #3619
• State rank: #424 of 590 in NY

Livability — Angola on the Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1000
• US rank: #19506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,072

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 19% Scottish 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.60%
• Current HPI: 334.5151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+76.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-22 Listed $29,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-07-22 Sold (MLS) $13,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-05-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-03-18 Price Changed $13,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-12-04 Price Changed $15,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-11-07 Listed $16,900 WNYREIS