5386 Traci Dr · East Milton, FL 32583

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2005 0.48 ac lot Est $256k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

100% Updated 3/2 With 1-Car Garage — Move-In Ready! 1/2 Acres +/- Grab this one — a fully updated 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with a 1-car garage, completely refreshed from top to bottom! This property features a brand-new roof, new AC, and a new hot water heater. The home includes a new kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, plus fresh interior and exterior paint, new fans and lighting, and all-new flooring throughout for a clean, modern finish. Everything has been updated — just move in and enjoy.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New hot water heater
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is not new construction; Appliances included: dishwasher, microwave, refrigerator, electric water heater
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with one covered space; Garage includes front entrance and garage door opener; Total of 1 parking space
• Security: Smoke detectors installed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Copper electrical wiring
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Shingle roof; One level
• Exterior features: Back yard with privacy fencing; Patio; Paved road access; County-maintained road; Central access, interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen with granite counters; New appliances and lighting (updated within the last year); Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor; Other bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Bathrooms recently updated (new vanity, toilet, lights, flooring)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Storm windows; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside with washer/dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.6% in East Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in FL, #3,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $250k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,730 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.39%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,532
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5344 Traci Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-2%)	6mo	$250,000	$192	88
8401 Sierra Echo Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+4%)	11mo	$222,000	$161	72
6761 Twister Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+2%)	1mo	$324,650	$240	71
6793 Twister Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+2%)	4mo	$315,000	$233	68
6777 Twister Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,385 (+5%)	0mo	$315,000	$227	67
5500 Cox Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+7%)	10mo	$300,000	$212	63
5299 Cox Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+9%)	20mo	$247,000	$171	58
8687 John Hamm Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+8%)	9mo	$203,000	$142	57
5426 Cox Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-11%)	24mo	$215,000	$183	51
5199 Pine Berry Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+14%)	8mo	$290,000	$193	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-24,412
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $9,698
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,048/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,007

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $269	+0% $198	+5% $127	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $20	-5% $109	+0% $198	+5% $287	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $324	-0.5pp $262	base $198	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8617 Tarsus Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,200	$1.20	24d	1	0.32mi
9330 Tara Cir Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,000	$1.12	15d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 530-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $249,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,048 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$26/yr (+$2/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,048
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,167
• − Management: −$2,167
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$1,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$435
• After-tax cash flow: $2,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Milton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #3139

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Milton, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 31,415
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1461.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $249,900 PARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $5,000 NFMLS
• 2024-02-06 Pending — PARMLS
• 2024-02-05 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2024-02-05 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2024-01-31 Price Changed $189,700 PARMLS
• 2024-01-25 Price Changed $191,500 PARMLS
• 2024-01-17 Price Changed $192,400 PARMLS
• 2024-01-15 Price Changed $193,000 PARMLS
• 2024-01-07 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2024-01-02 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2023-11-28 Listed $195,000 PARMLS
• 2019-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $146,600 Public Records
• 2019-04-18 Sold (MLS) $146,000 PARMLS
• 2018-09-04 Listed $147,000 PARMLS
• 2014-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-19 Sold (MLS) $85,000 PARMLS
• 2013-09-30 Listed $85,000 PARMLS
• 2011-03-08 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2010-03-24 Listed $134,999 PARMLS
• 2004-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 1984-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,048 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.