1705 N Key Rd · Troy, TN 38260

$59,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1935 0.90 ac lot $54/sqft · 77% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home in the Country! Home is nicely located minutes from Union City and Troy. With some work this home would make a great forever home.

Key facts

• Minutes from troy
• 0.9 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• MINUTES FROM UNION CITY
• MINUTES FROM TROY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($967 rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#74 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Obion County (rural): math 40% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #17 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Obion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Obion County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,690 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.98%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,826
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -77.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
862 Coon Williams Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,204 (+10%)	20mo	$64,000	$53	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $16,703
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $48,307
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38260

• Home prices YoY: -11.9%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $208/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $445

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $59,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $59,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $59,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $59,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $59,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-02-16
   listed $64,999 Active 149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   Great starter home in the Country! Home is nicely located minutes from Union City and Troy. With some work this home would make a great forever home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $208 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $419 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: +$211/yr (+$18/mo · 101.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$208
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$928
• − Management: −$928
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $4,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $3,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Obion County
• NCES district ID: 4703270
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,678
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5710
• State rank: #17 of 139 in TN

Livability — Troy

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #8884

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Obion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,434 people
• By 2030: 27,100 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 24,381 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 22,043 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 18,236 · -35.9%
• By 2100: 16,435 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Obion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.9) · D 17.2% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -64.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.9 2020: R+60.6 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.41%
• Current HPI: 210.3517
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $64,999 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $208 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.