3939 Catania Bay Ct · Missouri City, TX 77459

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,146 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2014 7,827 sqft lot $163/sqft · 8% below area Est $381k · 8% under $93/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this 2,146 sq ft home offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality! Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a dedicated office ideal for working from home or additional flex space, this home is designed to fit a variety of lifestyles. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating an inviting space for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy serene lake views right from your backyard, adding a peaceful touch to your daily routine. The covered patio has been thoughtfully converted into a versatile man cave, perfect for game days, hobbies, or relaxing with friends. With charming curb appeal, spacious in

Key facts

• Lake views
• Covered patio
• Dedicated office

Tags

• DEDICATED OFFICE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LAKE VIEWS
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has view
• HOA & community: Association managed by Randall Management; Annual HOA fee (includes clubhouse); Community trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (first-floor living); Built in 2014; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick, cement siding and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Storage shed; Views with pond on lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 16); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 11 x 12); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Kitchen island; Pantry; Double vanity; Jetted tub; Soaking tub; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-546 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Hightower H S (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 2,535 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 35% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,499 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.69%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,592
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -8.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3647 Worley Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	2,114 (-2%)	4mo	$315,000	$149	73
3950 Catania Bay Ct	0.05mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,326 (+8%)	3mo	$429,900	$185	72
4339 Lakeshore Forest Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,163 (+1%)	3mo	$375,000	$173	71
2522 Atlas Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,181 (+2%)	2mo	$285,000	$131	67
2918 Lake Villa Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,086 (-3%)	4mo	$375,000	$180	63
4623 Misty Morning Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,423 (+13%)	5mo	$329,988	$136	61
2302 Shannon Ct	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,366 (+10%)	0mo	$350,000	$148	60
3606 Truesdale Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,193 (+2%)	3mo	$289,900	$132	57
2231 Gold Beach Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (-6%)	0mo	$350,000	$174	56
4110 Laurel Woods Cir	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,179 (+2%)	1mo	$285,000	$131	56
3611 Darnell Ct	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,367 (+10%)	1mo	$155,000	$65	41
1430 Central Heights Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,844 (-14%)	6mo	$339,995	$184	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-79,235
• Equity at exit: $73,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-125,316
• Equity at exit: $67,991

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,684 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$592 /mo · $7,110/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$93
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,376

Max offer price $253,499

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3947 Amalfi Shores Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2409	$3,500	$1.45	43d	1	0.22mi
3935 Medici Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2636	$2,800	$1.06	20d	1	0.29mi
2235 Argos Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2838	$2,550	$0.90	20d	1	0.75mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	20d	1	0.96mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	1d	1	0.96mi
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	20d	1	0.97mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	22d	1	0.97mi
814 Hyacinth Pl Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2359	$2,500	$1.06	43d	1	1.03mi
1109 Lakes Edge Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2847	$2,800	$0.98	20d	1	1.09mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	19d	1	1.12mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	5d	1	1.22mi
8787 Sienna Springs Blvd Unit 3047 Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,344	$1.36	16d	1	1.24mi
9944 Highway 6 Missouri City, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1307	$2,775	$2.12	1d	17	1.24mi
3211 Breckinridge Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2920	$2,550	$0.87	20d	1	1.29mi
3907 Kiamesha Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2896	$2,750	$0.95	17d	1	1.29mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	43d	1	1.33mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	43d	1	1.37mi
8811 Sienna Springs Blvd Unit 3112 Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,681	$1.12	2d	1	1.38mi
8811 Sienna Springs Blvd Unit 3174 Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,713	$1.14	10d	1	1.38mi
8585 Sienna Springs Blvd Unit 3148 Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	2d	1	1.40mi
8585 Sienna Springs Blvd Unit 8618 Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,132	$1.42	10d	1	1.40mi
10030 Highway 6 Missouri City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,516	$2.43	1d	64	1.43mi
8733 Sienna Springs Way Missouri City, TX	3.0	1.0	1500	$2,205	$1.47	43d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $93 · $1,116/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $350,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $350,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-06
    listed $350,000 Active 759-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,110 · $592/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,110 · $592/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$7,110
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,577
• − Management: −$2,577
• − HOA: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$12,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,050
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $350,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+33.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,110 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.