238 Buffalo St · Bad Axe, MI 48413

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,151 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1930 0.50 ac lot $87/sqft · 15% below area Est $133k · 25% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 1 bath home located in Bad Axe. Freddie Mac First Look Initiative is good through 3-30-2026

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#179 in MI, #4,614 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
• Bad Axe Public Schools (town): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #264 of 540 in MI (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Huron County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Huron County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.65%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,846
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -24.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
241 Buffalo St	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+4%)	18mo	$130,000	$108	76
805 E Hopson St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,180 (+2%)	13mo	$126,750	$107	67
947 Beech St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,232 (+7%)	3mo	$187,000	$152	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-418
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $19,840
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48413

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,079 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $465/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $765

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $99,900 Pending 90 DOM
2. 2026-04-15
   price $99,900 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   3 bedroom 1 bath home located in Bad Axe. Freddie Mac First Look Initiative is good through 3-30-2026

3. 2026-04-14
   price $99,900 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   3 bedroom 1 bath home located in Bad Axe. Freddie Mac First Look Initiative is good through 3-30-2026

4. 2026-03-01
   listed $109,900 Active 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   3 bedroom 1 bath home located in Bad Axe. Freddie Mac First Look Initiative is good through 3-30-2026

5. 2026-03-01
   listed $109,900 Active 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   3 bedroom 1 bath home located in Bad Axe. Freddie Mac First Look Initiative is good through 3-30-2026

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $465 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,002 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$537/yr (+$45/mo · 115.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$465
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,036
• − Management: −$1,036
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$338
• After-tax cash flow: $2,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bad Axe Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2600017
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,106
• Composite: 31.03/100
• National rank: #6088
• State rank: #264 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bad Axe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #179
• US rank: #4614

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bad Axe, MI
• City population: 7,404
• Population (ZIP): 7,404

Population outlook (Huron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,325 people
• By 2030: 27,810 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 24,571 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 21,573 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 16,120 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 11,097 · -62.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Huron

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 29.1% · R 69.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.2pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+39.3 2016: R+38.2 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.35%
• Current HPI: 241.7522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-01 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-01 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $465 · -82.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.