3554 Railroad Dr · Celoron, NY 14701

$89,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1935 4,356 sqft lot $114/sqft · 69% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 2-bedroom cottage is the perfect peaceful getaway! Located within the highly desirable Bemus Point School District, this home offers a cozy retreat close to the lake with lake access to launch Kayak, canoe or jet ski's and all the comforts of year-round living. The property is being sold fully furnished and features several upgrades, including an on-demand hot water tank, a newer well jet pump, and an advanced filtration system. Enjoy the outdoor space with a pet-friendly, gated backyard, perfect for pets and privacy. A convenient shed provides additional storage, while the double lot offers plenty of room for extra parking. Whether you're looking for a year-round home or a tranquil weekend retreat, this cottage provides both comfort and convenience. Don’t miss out on this adorable gem—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Newer well jet pump
• Double lot
• 4,356 sq ft lot

Tags

• ON-DEMAND HOT WATER TANK
• NEWER WELL JET PUMP
• ADVANCED FILTRATION SYSTEM
• PET-FRIENDLY GATED BACKYARD
• DOUBLE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#320 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $81,445 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.14%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,387
• List price: $89,500
• Delta: -68.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3679 Pleasant Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	796 (+2%)	23mo	$299,900	$377	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $16,279
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $53,826
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14701

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,363 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $751

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $534	-5% $509	+0% $483	+5% $458	+10% $433
Rent	-10% $376	-5% $429	+0% $483	+5% $537	+10% $591
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $506	base $483	+0.5pp $460	+1.0pp $436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2887 Fluvanna Townline Rd Jamestown, NY	1.0	1.0	820	$1,750	$2.13	45d	1	0.24mi
3779 Heineman Rd Bemus Point, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	45d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $89,500 Pending 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,500 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,500 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,500 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $89,500 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,500 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   price $89,500 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $97,500 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,500 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,500 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $97,500 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-03-06
    listed $97,500 Active 851-char remark

    Show marketing remark (851 chars)

    This charming 2-bedroom cottage is the perfect peaceful getaway! Located within the highly desirable Bemus Point School District, this home offers a cozy retreat close to the lake with lake access to launch Kayak, canoe or jet ski's and all the comforts of year-round living. The property is being sold fully furnished and features several upgrades, including an on-demand hot water tank, a newer well jet pump, and an advanced filtration system. Enjoy the outdoor space with a pet-friendly, gated backyard, perfect for pets and privacy. A convenient shed provides additional storage, while the double lot offers plenty of room for extra parking. Whether you're looking for a year-round home or a tranquil weekend retreat, this cottage provides both comfort and convenience. Don’t miss out on this adorable gem—schedule your showing today!

14. 2021-10-01
    soldstatus $79,900
15. 2021-09-28
    soldstatus $79,900 Closed Sale or Rented 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Only footsteps from the water this 2 bedroom, 1 bath cottage provides an affordable escape to Chautauqua Lake! A charming front deck introduces an open concept living/dining/kitchen combo with 1 bedroom on the first floor and an entire loft bedroom on the 2nd floor. In addition to open concept living, you have plenty of room to park your boat or jet ski's as there is additional 2 parking spots across the street from the house that are included with the sale. This affordable cottage is being sold with all furnishings so all you need to do is pack your bags and run to the Lake so you don't miss out!

16. 2021-06-06
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Only footsteps from the water this 2 bedroom, 1 bath cottage provides an affordable escape to Chautauqua Lake! A charming front deck introduces an open concept living/dining/kitchen combo with 1 bedroom on the first floor and an entire loft bedroom on the 2nd floor. In addition to open concept living, you have plenty of room to park your boat or jet ski's as there is additional 2 parking spots across the street from the house that are included with the sale. This affordable cottage is being sold with all furnishings so all you need to do is pack your bags and run to the Lake so you don't miss out!

17. 2021-05-19
    listed $79,900 Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Only footsteps from the water this 2 bedroom, 1 bath cottage provides an affordable escape to Chautauqua Lake! A charming front deck introduces an open concept living/dining/kitchen combo with 1 bedroom on the first floor and an entire loft bedroom on the 2nd floor. In addition to open concept living, you have plenty of room to park your boat or jet ski's as there is additional 2 parking spots across the street from the house that are included with the sale. This affordable cottage is being sold with all furnishings so all you need to do is pack your bags and run to the Lake so you don't miss out!

18. 2013-08-09
    soldstatus $11,500
19. 2003-07-22
    soldstatus $20,000
20. 2003-07-16
    soldstatus $20,000
21. 2003-02-25
    listed $23,000
22. 2002-02-23
    listed $25,000
23. 1992-07-01
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,042 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$235/yr (+$20/mo · 22.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,308
• − Management: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $4,632
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,112
• After-tax cash flow: $4,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Celoron

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #320
• US rank: #5307

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chautauqua County · 38,461 people
• City population: 38,461
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,461
• Household income: $49,685
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1838.0

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.93%
• Current HPI: 259.402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+323.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $97,500 UNYREIS
• 2021-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2021-09-28 Sold (MLS) $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-06-06 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2021-05-19 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2013-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records
• 2003-07-22 Sold (MLS) $20,000 UNYREIS
• 2003-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-25 Listed $23,000 UNYREIS
• 2002-02-23 Listed $25,000 UNYREIS
• 1992-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,042 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.