1878 Tarpon Bay Dr S #102 · Island Walk, FL 34119

$289,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Condo · 245 Days on market

Built 2002 $904/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in a well-kept, gated community, this first-floor condo offers a comfortable and convenient place to call home in North Naples, just off I-75 and Immokalee Road. Inside, the layout is open and easy to live in, with plenty of natural light throughout. The living area flows right out to a screened-in lanai, where you can relax and enjoy peaceful views of the surrounding greenery—perfect for a quiet morning or winding down in the evening. The community has a lot to offer, including a fitness center, tennis and basketball courts, a heated pool, and a clubhouse with spaces to work, read, or socialize. There are also walking paths throughout the neighborhood, giving it a calm, relax

Key facts

• Gated community
• Heated infinity pool
• Outdoor jacuzzi

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR CONDO
• OPEN CONCEPT INTERIOR
• SCREENED IN LANAI
• GATED COMMUNITY
• HEATED INFINITY POOL
• OUTDOOR JACUZZI

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual HOA fees $10,848; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (Sandcastle Management Company / Tarpon Bay Community Association); Monthly HOA fee of $904 (quarterly fee $2,712); HOA covers cable TV, pool, reserves, gas, insurance, internet, structure and grounds maintenance, management, pest control, recreational facilities, security, sewer, trash and water; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, laundry, park, playground, pool, sauna, spa/hot tub, tennis and basketball courts, trails, dog park, sidewalks, street lights, gated; Buyer approval required for association; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parking; Common parking; Ground-level spaces; Guest and off-street parking; 2-space carport
• Security: Gated community; Closed-circuit cameras; Fire alarm and sprinkler system; Key card entry; Security fencing, lighting and alarms; Security system (owned); Security lights; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available and connected; Water and sewer connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; One-level living; Unit on first floor; Faces east; Completed condition
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed, screened patio; Patio; Sliding doors; Private mailbox; Exterior lighting; Storage; Sidewalk; Sprinkler (metered); Gazebo; Tennis court(s); Fishing pier (water extras); Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Range hood; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Water filtration / purifier
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Elevator in building; Living room and dining room combined; Open floor plan; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Programmable thermostat; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (blinds, drapes, shades, double-pane windows)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Inside laundry in a laundry closet; Electric and natural gas connected; Electric water heater; Gas water heater; Exhaust fan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (10.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#692 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 586 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $290k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.04%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-69,495
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-113,653
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34119

• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 586
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,420 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,348/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$904
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$718
• Net cashflow: $-206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,680

Max offer price $260,130

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1882 Tarpon Bay Dr S Unit 2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$2,200	$1.65	14d	1	0.03mi
2001 Tarpon Bay Dr N #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1620	$5,400	$3.33	23d	1	0.22mi
1710 Tarpon Bay Dr S Unit 4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1537	$2,200	$1.43	14d	1	0.23mi
2004 Tarpon Bay Dr N #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,450	$1.39	23d	1	0.25mi
2115 Malibu Lake Cir Naples, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1188	$2,282	$1.92	14d	56	0.35mi
6215 Wilshire Pines Cir #1601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$4,500	$2.83	23d	1	0.56mi
6140 Standing Oaks Ln Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$4,000	$4.44	23d	1	0.59mi
6325 Wilshire Pines Cir #308 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1577	$5,000	$3.17	14d	1	0.63mi
15126 Palmer Lake Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1254	$3,000	$2.39	23d	2	0.67mi
15144 Palmer Lake Cir #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1375	$6,500	$4.73	23d	1	0.77mi
15145 Palmer Lake Cir #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$7,000	$4.46	23d	1	0.79mi
10020 Heather Ln Unit 9-904 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,350	$1.43	23d	1	0.87mi
10033 Heather Ln Unit 5-502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1774	$2,300	$1.30	23d	1	0.89mi
1156 Oakes Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$7,500	$4.83	23d	1	0.95mi
5000 Immokalee Rd Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$3,186	$2.86	14d	68	1.03mi
4965 Sandra Bay Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,200	$1.60	14d	1	1.04mi
6544 Huntington Lakes Cir Unit 9-204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$4,250	$3.08	23d	1	1.05mi
4940 Cougar Ct S Unit 1545947P Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1367	$2,185	$1.60	14d	1	1.07mi
2408 Millcreek Ln #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1207	$2,200	$1.82	23d	1	1.07mi
4945 Cougar Ct S #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,750	$2.00	14d	1	1.09mi
5045 Cedar Springs Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$4,200	$2.94	23d	1	1.09mi
5045 Cedar Springs Dr #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$5,000	$4.16	23d	1	1.09mi
2456 Millcreek Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$2,375	$2.15	23d	1	1.11mi
6655 Huntington Lakes Cir #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1315	$3,500	$2.66	23d	1	1.11mi
4970 Deerfield Way Unit F-203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,990	$1.43	14d	1	1.11mi
4910 Cougar Ct N Unit 1-205 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,050	$1.49	14d	1	1.14mi
4960 Deerfield Way Unit E102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$4,250	$3.54	14d	1	1.14mi
5025 Cedar Springs Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1202	$3,510	$2.92	23d	1	1.15mi
5025 Cedar Springs Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$1,590	$1.32	14d	1	1.15mi
5105 Cedar Springs Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1650	$7,000	$4.24	23d	1	1.15mi
4950 Deerfield Way #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$2,000	$1.44	21d	1	1.15mi
5657 Whisperwood Blvd #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	23d	1	1.16mi
2469 Millcreek Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$3,495	$3.16	23d	1	1.16mi
2740 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1493	$3,488	$2.34	23d	3	1.19mi
4910 Deerfield Way #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,800	$4.00	21d	1	1.20mi
4910 Deerfield Way Unit A-203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$5,500	$3.96	14d	1	1.20mi
2790 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1537	$5,000	$3.25	23d	2	1.21mi
5645 Whisperwood Blvd #504 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	23d	1	1.22mi
2730 Cypress Trace Cir Unit 2836S Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,000	$4.19	23d	1	1.22mi
2730 Cypress Trace Cir Unit 2836A Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,000	$1.68	23d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $904 · $10,848/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,900 Active 237 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,900 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,900 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $289,900 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    price $292,400
15. 2026-04-02
    price $294,900
16. 2025-10-30
    price $297,400
17. 2025-10-16
    listed $299,900 Active
18. 2025-10-13
    historical
19. 2025-06-30
    price $309,900
20. 2025-05-15
    listed $325,000 Active
21. 2025-05-12
    historical
22. 2025-05-01
    price $330,000
23. 2025-04-02
    price $335,000
24. 2025-03-19
    price $345,000
25. 2025-02-14
    price $355,000
26. 2025-01-10
    listed $360,000 Active
27. 2022-11-22
    historical
28. 2022-11-07
    listed $415,000 Active
29. 2014-03-13
    soldstatus $160,000
30. 2014-03-13
    price $167,500
31. 2014-02-08
    listed $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$4,348
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,283
• − Management: −$3,283
• − HOA: −$10,848
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$6,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,643
• After-tax cash flow: $-826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Island Walk

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #692
• US rank: #14444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,807
• Household income: $113,391
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 741.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.12%
• Current HPI: 269.3208
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+82.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $292,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $297,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $309,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $325,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-05-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $330,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $345,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-10 Listed $360,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-22 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2022-11-07 Listed $415,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2014-03-13 Price Changed $167,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2014-03-13 Sold (MLS) $160,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2014-02-08 Listed $160,000 NAPLESMLS