103 Elm St · Caney City, TX 75156

$64,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1978 1.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Cedar Creek Lake living!! This property offers a rare opportunity with three lots totaling approximately one acre! Giving you space, flexibility, and that relaxed lake-area lifestyle so many buyers are looking for. Located within walking distance of Cedar Creek Lake, this is the kind of setting that makes everyday life feel like a getaway. Situated at the top of a hill at the beginning of the street, the property features a great layout with a lot trees and an elevated position that adds both character and privacy. Whether you’re looking to enjoy the existing setup or plan something new, the lot size and positioning offer excellent potential. You’ll love the convenien

Key facts

• Elevated position
• Three lots
• Grocery stores

Tags

• THREE LOTS
• ONE ACRE
• ELEVATED POSITION
• LOT SIZE
• LOCAL SHOPPING
• GROCERY STORES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 0.6% in Caney City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,562 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Malakoff ISD (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #187 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Malakoff El (math 58% / reading 54%, grade C+, #574 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 457 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $63,926 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.38%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $22,854
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $53,466
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $382/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $505

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-12
   listed $64,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $382 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,188 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$806/yr (+$67/mo · 210.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$382
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $6,280
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,507
• After-tax cash flow: $5,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malakoff ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828780
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,970
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3200
• State rank: #187 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caney City

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1562
• US rank: #26636

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $64,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $382 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.